Evaluating 2025 HOFame Finalists
Recency Bias a dominant Modern-Era theme: Is it warranted?
(Editor’s Note: This is part of a series on the Pro Football Hall of Fame’s quest to select the Class of 2025 with a new process and personnel. Written by Frank Cooney, a Seniors Blue Ribbon Selection Committee member in his 32nd year as a selector. Charts in this post are best viewed on a computer screen rather than a phone. The Hall of Football is not affiliated with the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Opinions expressed are those of the Hall of Football (HallofFootball.substack.com))
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Reflecting a short-sighted perspective, Pro Football Hall of Fame selectors named five first-ballot candidates among their 15 Modern Era finalists for the 2025 Class. Such results seem destined to continue the recency bias that fails to embrace the historical gravitas of this annual ceremony.
This means a third of the Modern-Era finalists — remnants of 167 nominees — played as recently as 2019 and retired just before the COVID pandemic. Meanwhile, at least three players in the league during the 9/11 terrorist attack, including two who made All-Decade, may be destined to the Seniors Abyss without being officially discussed.
To be clear, this is NOT saying the first-ballot candidates are not necessarily HOF-worthy. It is an indictment on misunderstanding how to maximize the 20-year window of eligibility in a way that gives appropriate attention to all players over a two-decade period. Think about how your great-grandchildren will look back on these selections from the next century.
Will the reasons for the selections be readily apparent? Or will they be so parochial that they require explanation?
Selectors cannot continue to front-load classes with players most recent in their memories (or regions) just because it is convenient to allow older prospects in their final few years of eligibility to fall into the overcrowded Seniors Category. My guess is that most selectors probably didn’t know them and barely knew of them.
Hell, although they are categorized as Modern-Era, 23 of the 25 semifinalists began their NFL career before the advent of the IPhone or Facebook. Imagine. Or is that I-magine?
The Modern-Era cutdown process that trimmed those 167 nominees to 15 Finalists has kicked a dozen All-Decade players to the curb, preventing them from being officially discussed by the selectors. That could be handled better.
This cutdown, from 25 to 15, is critical in allowing at least some discussion on those outstanding candidates, which means taking a more patient approach to the newcomers. This is the highest honor in the sport. Players are not entitled, although recent reactions indicate they think otherwise. If/when they get in, the jackets will be just as Gold and the busts will be just as Bronze. And the players damn well may appreciate their induction even more.
OK, we know you are anxious to hear/see the finalists, so here they are (alphabetically)
Eric Allen, CB – 1988-1994 Philadelphia Eagles, 1995-97 New Orleans Saints, 1998-2001 Oakland Raiders | (Times as a Semifinalist: 5 – 2021-25)
Jared Allen, DE – 2004-07 Kansas City Chiefs, 2008-2013 Minnesota Vikings, 2014-15 Chicago Bears, 2015 Carolina Panthers | (Times as a Semifinalist: 5 – 2021-25)
Willie Anderson, T – 1996-2007 Cincinnati Bengals, 2008 Baltimore Ravens | (Times as a Semifinalist: 5 – 2021-25)
Jahri Evans, G – 2006-2016 New Orleans Saints, 2017 Green Bay Packers | (Times as a Semifinalist: 3 – 2023-25)
Antonio Gates, TE – 2003-2018 San Diego/Los Angeles Chargers | (Times as a Semifinalist: 2 – 2024-25)
Torry Holt, WR – 1999-2008 St. Louis Rams, 2009 Jacksonville Jaguars | (Times as a Semifinalist: 11 – 2015-2025)
Luke Kuechly, LB – 2012-19 Carolina Panthers | (Times as a Semifinalist: 1 – 2025)
Eli Manning, QB – 2004-2019 New York Giants | (Times as a Semifinalist: 1 – 2025)
Steve Smith Sr., WR – 2001-2013 Carolina Panthers, 2014-16 Baltimore Ravens | (Times as a Semifinalist: 4 – 2022-25)
Terrell Suggs, LB/DE – 2003-2018 Baltimore Ravens, 2019 Arizona Cardinals, 2019 Kansas City Chiefs | (Times as a Semifinalist: 1 – 2025)
Fred Taylor, RB – 1998-2008 Jacksonville Jaguars, 2009-2010 New England Patriots | (Times as a Semifinalist: 6 – 2020-25)
Adam Vinatieri, PK – 1996-2005 New England Patriots, 2006-2019 Indianapolis Colts| (Times as a Semifinalist: 1 – 2025)
Reggie Wayne, WR – 2001-2014 Indianapolis Colts | (Times as a Semifinalist: 6 – 2020-25)
Darren Woodson, S – 1992-2003 Dallas Cowboys | (Times as a Semifinalist: 9 – 2015, 2017, 2019-2025)
Marshal Yanda, G/T – 2007-2019 Baltimore Ravens | (Times as a Semifinalist: 1 – 2025)
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The elephant in the room
The first-ballot finalists are Kuechly, Manning, Suggs, Vinatieri and Yanda. Four are HOF-worthy, and we expect to hear arguments for first-ballot induction on all of them.
The most polarizing candidate was, is, and will be Manning. Esteemed fellow selector Gary Myers insists Eli is a first-ballot HOFamer. I am not convinced Eli deserves to be in the HOFame at all.
Yes, he beat the almighty New England Patriots in two Super Bowls. That’s just not enough. Lest we forget, he is a guy who finagled his way onto the team of his choice with draft-day shenanigans aimed at preventing a repeat of what happened to dear old dad, the great Archie (grandfather of Arch) Manning.
Archie was a masterful quarterback coming out of Ole Miss, who notably threw for 436 yards and three TDs and rushed 104 yards against Alabama in the first nationally televised prime-time NCAA football broadcast in 1969 (‘Bama won, 33-32).
But in the 1971 draft, Archie was drafted No. 2 overall by the horrific New Orleans Saints, with whom he was stuck almost all his career and never could show his greatness. FWIW, he was drafted just after Stanford’s Jim Plunkett, who languished with the Patriots and 49ers before joining the Raiders and winning two Super Bowls. Mmmm, that has a familiar ring.
In the 2004 draft, Eli made it clear he would only play for certain teams, and the Giants were one. But the San Diego Chargers drafted him No. 1 anyway, leaving the Giants to select North Carolina State QB Philip Rivers as part of a prearranged deal to swap him for Manning. The Giants also gave up a third-round selection in that draft (#65) and their first- and fifth-round selections in 2005. Two Super Bowls notwithstanding, I think the Chargers got the better of that deal.
Anyway, Manning played his whole career for the team of his choice and finished with zero All-Pro seasons, a .500 won-loss record (117-117), including losing records in seven of his 16 seasons — to go with those SB victories.
Meh.
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Cut from 25 to 15, listed by points for honors won
In the chart below (legend is under the chart), four of the top seven rated players are first-year eligible, which may account for some recency bias. First-ballot guard Marshal Yanda has the top score after making First or Second-team All-Pro nine times and First-Team All-Decade in his 13 years of pro football.
However, just below him is another guard, Steve Wisniewski, whose credentials are almost identical but 18 years earlier. Wiz was First or Second-Team All-Pro eight times and was Second-Team 1990s All-Decade. But Wisniewski has only one year of Modern-Era eligibility left. He has never been a finalist and, therefore, never officially discussed in the room.
The top eight players listed here made first- or second-team All-Decade, but Wisniewski and Richmond Webb were cut, which is perhaps my biggest disappointment.
Of the ten returning 2024 finalists (Orange background), safety Rodney Harrison is the only one to miss the Modern-Era 15 this time. Last year, he was eliminated in the cutdown from 15-to-10, but he was at least discussed in the room. Wide receiver Steve Smith Sr. made the 15 for the first time this year, but Hines Ward, a nine-time semifinalist (2017-25) did not.
So once again, it will not be mentioned in the room that Ward was voted MVP of Super Bowl XL and, upon retirement, was one of eleven NFL players to have at least 1,000 career receptions. But you read it here. He has six years of Modern-Era eligibility remaining, but the usual glut of wide receivers — Smith, Holt, Reggie Wayne among the finalists, plus Anquan Boldin, now a semifinalist — will be joined by 2026 first-year eligibles Larry Fitzgerald (All-Decade) and Julian Edelman (SB MVP), demanding immediate attention.
So it does not get easier. The best way to prepare for the future blitz of talent is to pay closer attention to the past and clean house more efficiently along the way. It would also help to raise the bar for entrance, especially at positions where stats are being bloated by the evolution of the game and the addition of games per season.
Go ahead and find some overarching logic in this cutdown. Share your findings in comments.
John Turney’s points system for all charts in this post: All-Decade = 5 points, Consensus All-Pro = 3, MVP/DPOY or All-Conference = 2 points each, Years played, Second-Team All-Pro, Second-Team All-Conference = 1 point each.
Turney is a long-time football historian and first-year member of the Seniors Blue Ribbon Selection Committee.
Under “Status,” GREEN=Finalist; YELLOW=Semifinalist who was eliminated in the cut to 15. Finalists from 2024 have ORANGE backgrounds and those with an asterisk were in the final five.
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Rules and other finalists
The Selection Committee may elect up to five Modern-Era Players for the Class of 2025; each must receive a minimum positive vote of 80% for election.
Five others — Seniors category Finalists Maxie Baughan, Sterling Sharpe and Jim Tyrer; along with Coach Finalist Mike Holmgren and Contributor Finalist Ralph Hay — also are candidates for the Class of 2025.
Voting on these five is done separately as its own group distinct from the Modern-Era Players; a minimum of one prospect and a maximum of three from these combined categories may be elected under the Hall’s bylaws.
There is no set number for the overall class of Enshrinees, but the Hall of Fame’s current selection process bylaws stipulate that between four and eight new members will be selected.
The Hall’s independent Selection Committee determined the Finalists in the Modern-Era Player category from a list that originated with 167 nominees. It was reduced two other times (to 50 nominees and to 25 Semifinalists) before the cut to the 15 Finalists.
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Eliminated in cut from 25 to 15 Modern-Era finalists
Anquan Boldin, WR – 2003-09 Arizona Cardinals, 2010-12 Baltimore Ravens, 2013-15 San Francisco 49ers, 2016 Detroit Lions | (Times as a Semifinalist: 4 – 2022-25)
James Harrison, LB – 2002-2012, 2014-17 Pittsburgh Steelers, 2013 Cincinnati Bengals, 2017 New England Patriots | (Times as a Semifinalist: 3 – 2023-25)
Rodney Harrison, S – 1994-2002 San Diego Chargers, 2003-08 New England Patriots | (Times as a Semifinalist: 4 – 2021, 2023-25)
Robert Mathis, DE/LB – 2003-2016 Indianapolis Colts | (Times as a Semifinalist: 4 – 2022-25)
Earl Thomas, DB – 2010-18 Seattle Seahawks, 2019 Baltimore Ravens | (Times as a Semifinalist: 1 – 2025)
Ricky Watters, RB – 1992-94 San Francisco 49ers, 1995-97 Philadelphia Eagles, 1998-2001 Seattle Seahawks | (Times as a Semifinalist: 5 – 2020, 2022-25)
Hines Ward, WR – 1998-2011 Pittsburgh Steelers | (Times as a Semifinalist: 9 – 2017-2025)
Richmond Webb, T – 1990-2000 Miami Dolphins, 2001-02 Cincinnati Bengals | (Times as a Semifinalist: 1 – 2025)
Vince Wilfork, DT – 2004-2014 New England Patriots, 2015-16 Houston Texans | (Times as a Semifinalist: 4 – 2022-25)
Steve Wisniewski, G – 1989-2001 Los Angeles/Oakland Raiders | (Times as a Semifinalist: 2 – 2014, 2025)
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A Different Perspective: From the Brink of the Abyss
The chart below is sorted by the fewest years remaining of Modern Era eligibility in the list of 25, showing cuts.
Under the category “status” this shows the 15 Modern-Era HOF Finalists in GREEN among and the 10 semifinalists who missed in YELLOW. Again, this list is sorted by the fewest years of eligibility remaining before a player falls into the Seniors Abyss.
Sorted by fewest seasons remaining of Modern-Era Eligibility
Players with gold backgrounds were among the 15 finalists in 2024, and those with an asterisk were among the final ten.
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Missed the cut from 50 to 25 Modern-Era Semifinalist
This chart shows the 25 players who did not make the cut, including three who are no longer eligible as Modern-Era candidates. The list is sorted with the fewest remaining years of eligibility at the top.
Ten of these players made First or Second-Team All-Decade, including two first-year eligibles who missed the cut. The categories from left to right are the same as in the above chart.
(The Hall of Football is not affiliated with the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Opinions expressed are those of the Hall of Football (HallofFootball.substack.com)
My biggest concern is the new process will split votes on deserving greats who would have been selected in the previous process.
For example: the current wide receiver logjam that finally broke with Andre Johnson 2024. What if Torry Holt and Reggie Wayne each have substantial support and receive ~75% in the vote-down from final 7?
Not only is this unjust to them, as longtime finalists, but it also affects other WRs (Smith Sr., Ward, etc.) and others who deserve to be in the future conversation. And with recency bias, sadly some of those can get pushed to late Modern years and then likely the Seniors abyss. (Webb and Wiz were 1-for-35 years as semifinalists until this year.)
Imo the new process is faulty in part because a key stakeholder, the 50 selectors, was not engaged by the PFHOF Board. Hopefully, the new process works or is refined so that it is successful - the greatness legacy of football requires it
Frank:
I agree about recency bias being an issue. It is vital that everyone involved is well-schooled in the credentials of players from all eras and decades. In other words, voters need to be football historians. During my years on the panel, that has been a strength that I hope continues.
I firmly believe that five modern-era candidates will be selected annually ad finitum. Perhaps five is not a large enough number for the category? We can't forget there will be many "slam dunks" coming up such as Tom Brady and Drew Brees and J.J. Watt and Larry Fitzgerald and Adrian Peterson and Jason Kelce and Trent Williams -- you get my drift.
Although I wouldn't suggest that we open wide the number of modern-era selectees, I do wonder if five is enough. To me, we are not watering down entry into Canton by enshrining the deserving, regardless of when they played.
Barry