How to improve Hall of Fame Selections
Overcome recency bias; stop bloating Seniors Abyss: You make the call!
(Editor’s Note: This is part of a series on the Pro Football Hall of Fame’s quest to select the Class of 2025 with a new process and personnel. Written by Frank Cooney, a Seniors Blue Ribbon Selection Committee member in his 32nd year as a selector. Charts in this post are best viewed on a computer screen rather than a phone.)
If the Pro Football Hall of Fame’s Class of 2025 and beyond is to show improvement, there must be a change in attitude starting right now.
Recency bias must be eliminated to cure the disturbing malady of the Seniors category — bloating. It starts with the Modern-Era considerations. The Hall opened ballots this last week for selectors to reduce Modern-Era candidates from 50 to 25 players.
Selectors must overcome the natural inclination to recite the most familiar names: Players whose exploits are reaffirmed in recent living-color highlights on ESPN and NFL Network. It is an honor to be a selector, so let’s do the homework to understand all the players, not just the more recent or neighborhood stars.
The Seniors Blue Ribbon Selection committee is currently trying to pull the most HOF-worthy of 31 seniors from what we refer to as the Seniors Abyss. And many are worthy. Simultaneously, the full committee is eyeing a list of 50 Modern-Era players. Too much discussion is focused on first-year eligibles, starting with the initial announcement of candidates, which invariably begins by introducing those newcomers.
What’s the rush? Inducting first-year eligibles too often just devalues the honor. Next thing you know, we have some very good first-year eligibles who get their nose bent out of shape when not inducted immediately. They should be embarrassed. This isn’t the Hall of Very Good. Get over yourselves.
Being inducted into the Hall of Fame is the highest honor in pro football, and nobody should feel entitled. If the selectors raise the bar for entry, players might begin to see things more appropriately.
A line must be drawn, although I don’t know the exact place. First-year eligible players should not seriously be considered unless, by some acceptable stretch, they can be counted among the best in history at their position. They should be in the conversation, at least. Otherwise, they can wait their turn. There is a 20-year window. The treasured Gold Jacket and Bronze Bust will be the same, regardless of when a player is inducted.
Instead, let’s cure the Bloat. Focus on HOF-worthy players on the brink of falling into the Seniors Abyss, players with one to five years of eligibility left. There are some good ones. Let’s at least keep them in the cut to 25 to allow further consideration and education.
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You Make the Call!
Before we drill into the details, we offer a “You Make the Call!” opportunity to name your choices in our anonymous survey. Step up. Participate. Whoever is closest to the HOFame’s cut to 25 wins a free Total Access subscription to the Hall of Football for one year. The Hall of Football is not affiliated with the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Opinions expressed are those of the Hall of Football (HallofFootball.substack.com)
For your ballot, click here.
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Battle the Bloat!
For example, for players with only this one year of eligibility left, we have …
— Linebacker Cornelius Bennett, a Second-Team All-Decade player (1990s) who was First or Second-team All-Pro three times, was named to five Pro Bowls and played 204 games in 14 years.
— Defensive end Neil Smith, a Second-Team All-Decade player (1990s) who was First or Second-team All-Pro four times and was named to six Pro Bowls and made 104 career sacks.
— Tight end Ben Coates, a Second-Team All-Decade player (1990s) who was first or Second-Team All-Pro three times and made five Pro Bowls.
(So, that’s three Second-Team All-Decade players who will go into the Seniors Abyss if not inducted this year)
Only two years left (including 2025):
— Cornerback Eric Allen, who had 54 interceptions, was a three-time First or Second-Team All-Pro, made six Pro Bowls, and was a finalist last year. He played for three teams, which may diminish his importance to any one of them. Seriously.
— Guard Steve Wisniewski, who was Second-Team All-Decade (1990s), made First or Second-Team All-Pro eight times, was named to eight Pro Bowls, and never made it this far in his previous 17 years of HOF eligibility. Senior selector Ron Borges is among those who advocated for Wiz. Players and coaches recently held “Players Only” meetings to discuss Wiz and show highlights of his career to publish for selector and public consumption. Wiz knew nothing about it.
— Running back Ricky Watters was named to five Pro Bowls, three All-Conference teams, scored three touchdowns in a Super Bowl and five touchdowns in a divisional playoff game. He rushed for 10,643 yards and 78 touchdowns and caught 467 passes for 4,248 yards and 13 touchdowns. His three SB touchdowns — one rushing and two receiving — were in SB XXIX for the 49ers. He rushed for more than 1,000 yards for three teams, which means, as it does with Eric Allen, his importance and advocacy are diminished from any one of those teams. This is why selectors must do their own homework. Compare his career to that of Roger Craig, who is a favorite senior for 2025.
Check the chart below, which lists players by remaining years of eligibility. You will see several with fewer than five years remaining who are viable candidates for induction. They include safety Darren Woodson, a finalist for the 2024 Class; Second-Team All-Decade OT Richmond Webb and RB/KR Brian Mitchell, whose 23,330 all-purpose yards are second only to Jerry Rice, and whose 13 special teams touchdowns are second only to Devin Hester (19), who was a 2024 Class HOF inductee.
An Important Perspective
Modern-Era prospects
This chart shows Modern-Era HOF candidates sorted by the fewest years of eligibility remaining before they fall into the Seniors Abyss.
John Turney’s points system for all charts in this post: All-Decade = 5 points, Consensus All-Pro = 3, MVP/DPOY or All-Conference = 2 points each, Years played, Second-Team All-Pro, Second-Team All-Conference = 1 point each.
Turney is a long-time football historian and first-year member of the Seniors Blue Ribbon Selection Committee.
Gold background = 2024 finalist; Green Background = first-year eligible.
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What selectors must do
After the Hall’s significant changes in process and personnel this year — with anonymous 11-person screening committees for Modern-Era and Seniors players and revised Blue Ribbon subcommittees — it will still be up to the voting selectors to create an improved result, as usual.
For this year and the future health and integrity of the Hall of Fame, selectors must be mindful of the whole picture and how Modern-Era oversights impact the struggles of an oversized group of viable Seniors.
There must be an awareness that the Modern-Era’s 20 years of eligibility needs to be better cultivated at both ends. First-ballot inductees must be so conspicuous that there should be no argument and almost no discussion. At the other end, players on the brink of falling into the Abyss MUST be given proper consideration to battle the bloat in the Seniors category.
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Traditional perspective
The more traditional way of looking at Hall of Fame prospects is to consider their credentials. John Turney’s tables take a shot at quantifying aspects (such as games played) and awards (various) that have a commonality across eras.
This is one perspective and not intended to be a singular determining factor any more than raw statistics determine a player’s worthiness for the HOF.
Gold background = 2024 finalist; Green Background = first-year eligible
What we see is that longevity is rewarded. So kickers Gary Anderson (23 years played) and (first-year eligible) Adam Vinatieri (24 years) are elevated to the top seven. Still, first-year eligible guard Marshal Yanda has the highest score in this group thanks to making All-Decade (2010s), nine years of First or Second All-Pro, and eight Pro Bowls.
Does that make Yanda a prime candidate for a first-ballot induction? Based on my criteria, the question on the table would be: Is he in the discussion for the best ever to play guard? Talk amongst yourselves. That is a tough one. Try looking up stats on guards. Good luck with that.
Based on input from social media and selectors, the player most discussed as a first-year prospect in the Class of 2025 is quarterback Eli Manning. There is a movement to get him inducted ASAP. In Turney’s tables, Manning ranks No. 45 because, in 16 years, he made four Pro Bowls but was never selected as a First or Second-Team All-Pro. His career record was .500. Those credentials don’t sound Hall of Fame-worthy, do they?
However …
Manning was the quarterback when the New York Giants beat the New England Patriots in the Super Bowl — twice, with one stopping the Pats from achieving an undefeated season (2007). Each win hinged on a single spectacular catch that led to a game-deciding scoring drive.
Some say that, without those two catches, Manning would have been just another footnote in New York sports history. Respected Seniors Selector Gary Myers is not one of them, and I fully expect Myers to pitch Manning as a first-ballot inductee. In fact, somebody called me from Las Vegas to say as much. So, bet on it.
This is hard evidence that the whole selection process is far from scientific — Turney’s tables notwithstanding — and sometimes conveniently sidesteps basic logic.
The biggest reason for that is the Hall of Fame’s rules for determining an inductee — or the lack of rules. Selectors are told to consider only what happens on the field. That’s it. This quaint notion is stretched beyond comprehension, especially when selectors just don’t like something about a player regardless of his level of on-field play.
Go ahead, name such a player in only two letters.
Conversely, an eminently likable player, especially from a high-profile team, is offered a wide girth as selectors find — almost invent — reasons for induction. It also helps if that player is from a family with more than one generation of players. Can you name such a situation with the family’s last name starting with an M?
Yes, of course, the Matthews family. Linebacker Clay Matthews Jr. is in that clan. His name pops up on early HOF lists every year. He played 19 years, although not up to incredibly high family standards, with only one All-Pro season but four Pro Bowls. In 2022, he was named to the Hall of Very Good by the Professional Football Researchers Association. That seems appropriate.
Oh, Matthews was not the “M” you had in mind? Mmm … Manning?
Right. So, let’s look at the most recent Manning candidate. He will be at the center of perhaps the most vigorous debate as we determine the Class of 2025. Meanwhile, HOF-worthy players — Bennett, Wisniewski, Allen, et al. — are on the brink of the Abyss.
Battle the Bloat!
The Hall of Football is not affiliated with the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Opinions expressed are those of the Hall of Football (HallofFootball.substack.com)