QB Chaos: Can't pick em, can't coach em
From Preps to Pros there is systemic failure at game's most important position
Considering that quarterback is rated the most critical position in American sports, it is unforgivable that these players are so egregiously mishandled, from the prep to the pro level. There are cataclysmic failures in the system and the very institutions and coaches for whom they play.
It was a sport once driven by the desire to win, and win as a team. We called it the ultimate team sport. But football in general, and college quarterbacks in particular, have devolved into a pathetic game of pandering for the almighty dollar and adulation on social media.
With income now allowable at all levels for Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL), the quaint concepts of loyalty to the team and/or school — to say nothing of education — have deteriorated into grabs for cash. Even prep players are moving to other schools and states to maximize their income now and in the future, to build their brand.
Guardrails are needed to keep both the players and the schools in line.
Last week, quarterback Nico Iamaleava sat out Friday’s practice and Saturday’s spring game as his representatives put pressure on the University of Tennessee to raise his salary to $4 million a season. Tennessee head coach Josh held his ground. On Wednesday, Iamaleava became one of more than 3,000 college football players in the transfer portal.
But, Iamaleava has been milking the system since 2022 when, as a high school junior, he agreed to the original $8 million NIL deal with Tennessee’s collective, Spyre Sports. That reportedly included an up-front payment of $350,000 during his senior season at Warren High School in Downey, California. We are guessing that he didn’t need to borrow money or the car from his parents for the prom.
On the other side of this sad situation, the schools and their co-conspirator conglomerates are hardly blameless. In 2023, quarterback Jaden Rashada left home in Pittsburg, California, to join Florida to play football and, oh yeah, collect $13.8 million in NIL money. When he was told he wouldn’t get that money, Rashada left for Arizona State, then spent last year as a backup at Georgia behind Carson Beck.
Last Thursday, a U.S. district court judge in Pensacola denied motions to dismiss Rashada’s lawsuit against coach Billy Napier and several others.
(Update: Beck transferred to Miami to rehabilitate his once-great draft value, and Reshada is back in the transfer portal for a third time, seeking a new team, preferably one with a good NIL deal.)
Quarterback Matthew Skula, a Holy Cross graduate who moved to UNLV last year for one final season of football eligibility, quit after guiding the team to a 3-0 record. He said UNLV did not pay him the $100,000 he was promised. Some say he was disturbed by unexpected competition for the job. Who knows? But you would think $100,000 for a QB who is 3-0 is not a big deal, especially in Vegas. Again, who knows?
As of Thursday midnight (ET), more than 3,000 players had entered the transfer portal since December, counting a second round that began on April 16 and will last 10 days. Among more than 200 quarterbacks, Iamaleava and Reshada are seeking a new deal, er, team.
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Below is a downloadable list of QBs in Transfer Portal as of Midnight 4-17-25
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Against this transient background, quarterbacks who began their college careers as great prospects may have focused less on improving their abilities and more on situating themselves for the ultimate prize — a high pick in the NFL draft.
Last year, thanks in part to extra seasons of eligibility due to COVID and the transfer portal, we had an unusual confluence of talented quarterbacks available. A record six were drafted in the first 12 picks. The previous year, three were selected in the first round.
So it shouldn't be surprising that the quarterback class left for the 2025 draft is not highly regarded. In normal times, top pro prospects leave school early to join the draft. In our top 17 candidates for the 2025 Draft, 10 are redshirt seniors, topped by Miami’s Cam Ward, the people’s choice for the No. 1 draft pick. Five more are seniors, leaving only two as juniors, technically redshirt juniors, Quinn Ewers of Texas and Jalen Milroe of Alabama.
List of the 17 QBs we consider draftable this year, with Combine and Pro Day data
Under other circumstances, this amount of experience would be considered good. One line of thinking is that the more experience you have, the better.
Yeah, but … (As Madden would say)
That was back when top quarterbacks found top coaches and were schooled by them for several seasons. The vagabond life of quarterbacks on a quest for cash changes that. Some of them hook up with good quarterback coaches along the way, and some of them hook up for a one or two-year stand.
The result is that quarterbacks who otherwise have the physical, mental and emotional tools to become excellent prospects often leave college as unfinished products. And that is despite playing college football for as many as six or seven years.
This exacerbates an already questionable job by the pro football community in terms of evaluating candidates for that most critical position in American sports. The results are quantified as players continue to change teams too often after entering the pros.
Ten former first-round picks changed teams this year, upping their total to 34 teams in the last ten years. Three other former first-round picks remain unsigned free agents, including Aaron Rodgers. He was thought to be headed to Pittsburgh, but dallied long enough for another viable landing spot to open in New Orleans, where Derek Carr showed up with a shoulder injury he should have taken care of months ago, but that is a rant for another day.
On Thursday, the ever-elusive Rodgers said he is not leveraging the situation to make more money. He said he would play for a measly $10 million. I wonder if that innocent-sounding comment was heard by teams in contention despite not having a future Hall of Fame quarterback. Ten million smackers is chump change for the short-term rental of a great NFL quarterback.
While Rodgers ponders how the stars and moon align, let’s take a look at the chart below. It shows the movement, or contractual changes (for those who re-signed), since last season. Players marked in yellow were first-round draft picks. The last column shows how many teams they have been with over how many years.
Equally revealing is the tale of quarterbacks who were drafted in the first round but were quickly discarded, yet persevered until they established a foothold. Most obvious is feisty Baker Mayfield, the Heisman Trophy winner who was drafted first overall by Cleveland in 2018, but spent time with the Carolina Panthers and Los Angeles Rams before planting his flag in Tampa Bay.
Mayield led the Bucs to two consecutive playoffs and signed a contract worth in excess of $100 million. Meanwhile, the Browns spent twice that much in guaranteed money for controversial quarterback Deshaun Watson, a brainstorm that ownership admitted this month was a failed experiment. The Browns enter the 2025 season looking for a quarterback, although they signed Joe Flacco, a former first-round pick (2008) now with his fourth team in four years (and fifth team in 17 years overall), including his second stint in Cleveland in the last three seasons.
Former USC star Sam Darnold, selected No. 3 overall by the New York Jets in 2018, is slated as the 2025 starter with the Seattle Seahawks, after finding his equilibrium as a backup with the San Francisco 49ers in 2023. He then led the Minnesota Vikings to the playoffs last year when their rookie heir to the throne, J.J. McCarthy, was sidelined due to an injury.
Also of interest is the New York Giants’ first-round pick in 2021, Daniel “Danny Dimes” Jones. Indianapolis will be his third team in two years. Still, I am among those who think he has enough quarterback skills to displace Anthony Richardson, a first-round pick in 2023, who was tremendous in the underwear Olympics at the Indianapolis Combine, but even in his brief appearances as the Colts quarterback, he looked as clueless as somebody who started only 13 college games.
In fact, quarterback selections in the first round over the last decade paint a dismal picture of the NFL’s ability to choose passers who stick around, let alone star. Of the 38 signal-callers drafted in the first round from 2014 to 2024, seven are out of football, and only 18 are with the same team, counting the nine drafted in the last two years.
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A Decade of Dreadful Decisions
NFL’s First Round Picks Since 2014
38 players have been with 77 teams; 18 with the original team, seven out of the league
*Players in bold (with asterisk) are still with original team. Total teams in parentheses after name (If more than one, and Includes if there is new team this year). Total games played/started in parentheses after drafting teams. 2014 Blake Bortles (2), Jacksonville (No. 3, 75/73, 78/73 total) NOT IN LEAGUE Johnny Manziel, Cleveland (No. 22, 14/8) NOT IN LEAGUE Teddy Bridgewater (6), Minnesota (No. 32, 30/28, 79/65 total NOT IN LEAGUE 2015 Jameis Winston (4), Tampa Bay (No. 1, 72/70, 105/87 total) Marcus Mariota (5), Tennessee (No. 2, 63/61, 93/74 total) 2016 Jared Goff (2), L.A. Rams (No. 1, 69/69, 134/134 total) Carson Wentz (5), Philadelphia (No. 2, 68/68, 98/94 total) NOT IN LEAGUE Paxton Lynch, Denver (No. 26), 5/4) NOT IN LEAGUE 2017 Mitchell Trubisky (4), Chicago (No. 2, 51/50, 78/57 total) 4 TEAMS INCLUDES WITH BUFFALO TWO DIFFERENT TIMES *Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City (No. 10, 112/112) Deshaun Watson (2), Houston (No. 12, 54/53, 73/72 total) 2018 Baker Mayfield (4), Cleveland (No. 1, 60/59, 106/103 total) Sam Darnold (4), N.Y. Jets (No. 3, 38/38, 83/73 total) *Josh Allen, Buffalo (No. 7, 111/110) Josh Rosen (3), Arizona (No. 10, 14/13, 24/16 total) NOT IN LEAGUE *Lamar Jackson, Baltimore (No. 32, 103/94) 2019 *Kyler Murray, Arizona (No. 1, 82/82) Daniel Jones, (3), N.Y. Giants (No. 6, 70/69) Dwayne Haskins (2), Washington (No. 15, 16/13) DECEASED 2020 *Joe Burrow, Cincinnati (No. 1, 69/69) *Tua Tagovailoa, Miami (No. 5, 64/62) *Justin Herbert, L.A. Chargers (No. 6, 79/79) *Jordan Love, Green Bay (No. 26, 42/33) 2021 *Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville (No. 1, 60/60) Zach Wilson (3), N.Y. Jets (No. 2, 34/33) Trey Lance (2), San Francisco (No. 3, 8/4, 12/5 total) Justin Fields (3), Chicago (No. 11, 40/38, 50/44 total) Mac Jones (3), New England (No. 15, 42/42, 52/49 total) 2022 Kenny Pickett (3), Pittsburgh (No. 20, 25/24, 29/25 total) 2023 *Bryce Young, Carolina (No. 1, 30/28) *C.J. Stroud, Houston (No. 2, 32/32) *Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis (No. 4, 15/15) 2024 *Caleb Williams, Chicago (No. 1, 17/17) *Jayden Daniels, Washington (No. 2, 17/17) *Drake Maye, New England (No. 3, 13/12) *Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta (No. 8, 5/3) *J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota (No. 10, 0/0) *Bo Nix, Denver (No. 12, 17/17)
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What’s up with that? Fact is, the ring is the thing and just about everybody believes a team does not get into the Super Bowl without an exceptional quarterback. Sometimes getting into the Super Bowl isn’t enough.
Coaches, general managers and owners want immediate gratification. They over-reach, over-think and overpay for what they think, hope and pray will be the next John Elway, Joe Montana or Troy Aikman.
Instead, they got Tim Couch, JaMarcus Russell, Sam Darnold, Zach Wilson, Ryan Leaf, Rick Mirer, Blake Bortles, Joey Harrington, Akili Smith, Heath Shuler and Trey Lance. They were all top-three picks since 1990, but only Darnold managed to make a Pro Bowl, last year with Minnesota, thereby earning a contract with his fifth team, Seattle.
That data is courtesy of fellow Hall of Fame selector Rick Gosselin, a venerable veteran, highly respected for his fastidious and detailed research. Last year, he compiled that list of infamous draftees as part of a story in which he posed the question, “Does the NFL Know What a QB Looks Like?”
Answer: Apparently not.
“Instant gratification is a force that drives teams to make questionable decisions,” said former Atlanta Falcons general manager Ken Herock, who tutors players to prepare for pre-draft rituals. “Teams will fall in love with a quarterback in the draft and take him too high, or give up too quickly on a good quarterback they already have.
“The bar is ridiculously high — win that damned Super Bowl now! Years ago, teams gave quarterbacks time to mature, or tried to. Patience helped some of the more recent successes, such as Mahomes, who sat behind former No. 1 Alex Smith, or Aaron Rodgers, who was a backup to Brett Favre for three seasons before becoming one of the best ever to play the game.”
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Watching teams who had the pick of the litter in the last two drafts is even more daunting. In 2023, Alabama’s little Bryce Young — and we do mean little — was taken No. 1 by Carolina, something we thought was out of character for then-head coach Frank Reich, who may not have made the call. Regardless, it led to his firing, and he is now the interim head coach at Stanford, the westernmost member of the ACC, and certainly a point of confusion even for the academics on The Farm.
Our No. 1 preference that year was Ohio State’s C. J. Stroud, who was taken No. 2 overall by the Houston Texans, and had the best rookie year for a quarterback in NFL history. However, he goes into 2025 trying to overcome a sophomore slump.
Last year, we were tone deaf to the cries that USC’s magical Caleb Williams was the best quarterback in the draft despite a plethora of red flags in his play. When he didn’t immediately set the world on fire with the Chicago Bears, they canned the offensive coordinator, then the head coach. Now Ben Johnson, offensive coordinator in Detroit’s return to legitimacy, is the head coach in charge of getting Williams to pull the rabbit out of the hat, so to speak.
Going into that 2024 draft, we preferred LSU’s Jayden Daniels, who had traits similar to two-time league MVP Lamar Jackson. We thought Jackson was a better runner, but Daniels was a better passer. Daniels restored respectability to the Washington Commanders by leading them to the NFC Championship Game and winning the AP Rookie of the Year Award.
So, you might forgive us this year when we aren’t buying into the consensus that Miami’s Cam Ward is a slam-dunk, sure-fire NFL superstar. I am not fond of his passing motion, which is rarely above his shoulder, although he has a high-caliber, quick trigger of an arm and launches passes that make my hands hurt just watching.
I know Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders seems to have a few functional flaws, but confidence and leadership are not among them. I think some teams are just intimidated by his unabashed self-confidence. Wonder where he got that?
Almost everybody jumped off the bandwagon of Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers, who had injury issues but remained focused despite a considerable distraction by the presence of Arch Manning. In my mind, I see a lot of Justin Herbert in Ewers. Hey, it’s my mind! And I mean more than the fact that they both cut off mullets during their college careers. They are both unflappable and throw the ball with a sort of disdainful impunity that scoffs at whatever defense they face.
Ewers did have the help of perhaps the best bunch of college wide receivers outside of Columbus, Ohio. Admittedly, I can’t shake the image of him destroying a great Alabama defense before he was sidelined with an injury two years ago. That is the Quinn Ewers I hope to see again one day.
So, next we wait to see who goes where and to whom. But it will be long after that glossy draft show in Green Bay next week that we see the results, the reality. And as bad as things have been, that is what still captures our attention, year after year.
In our Quarterback Blitz package this weekend, we also offer Jeremy Bissett’s analysis on the Class of 2025 and our annual reminder on how to evaluate quarterbacks, by the Master, Bill Walsh.
Next: Watch for our Big Board, the Top 350.
We are all on the clock!