Even as last weekend’s emotional induction speeches at Canton, Ohio, echo in our memory, the Pro Football Hall of Fame selection committee is at work sorting through top prospects for the Class of 2025.
Already, emails, fancy brochures, and personal notes from team owners, coaches, former players, and even local politicians are arriving with explanations why so-and-so MUST be inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
These narrowly focused pleas show that few, if any, of these people really understand what it takes to be a Hall of Famer, which we addressed in the first part of this series. In this chapter, we discuss the Modern Era candidates, those who retired at least five years ago but fewer than 25 years ago, which would put them in the Senior category, aka the Abyss. We will address the Abyss in our next segment.
Last week, we welcomed the Class of 2024. This week, selectors were already poring over top-secret, preliminary lists of candidates for the 2025 Class. Shhh. You didn’t hear that here.
The selectors are looking for up to nine inductees — a maximum of five Modern-Era players, three senior players, and one coach or contributor. Should be a piece of cake, right?
There are nine finalists from last year still loitering on the doorstep — defensive back Eric Allen, offensive tackle Willie Anderson, guard Jahri Evans, tight end Antonio Gates, running back Fred Taylor, defensive lineman Jared Allen safeties Darren Woodson and Rodney Harrison, and wide receivers Torry Holt and Reggie Wayne.
But wait, there’s more.
Among those eligible for the first time in 2025 will be quarterback Eli Manning, linebacker Luke Kuechly, kicker Adam Vinatieri, offensive tackle Joe Staley, running back Marshawn Lynch, defensive back Earl Thomas, and versatile offensive weapon Darren Sproles.
And there’s the rub. For all of you who frivolously referred to somebody as a sure-fire, first-ballot Hall of Famer, did you consider that such an achievement actually depends on who is in the running for that class?
Last year, we felt strongly that Gates — the college basketball player turned NFL superstar tight end — would be a first-ballot inductee. Instead, another college basketball and football standout, Julius Peppers, was the only first-ballot selection.
Despite a penchant for recency bias, this year, we don’t see a good candidate to be a first-ballot inductee. We absolutely expect a lot of noise about Eli as a first-ballot prospect, but we are not buying it. In fact, there are a lot of people who wonder aloud if he should be an inductee at all.
Such talk is blasphemy to New York Giants fans, who dutifully recite how he “led” the Giants to two Super Bowl victories. The fact is, he was on the Giants' team that won two Super Bowls. Perhaps “led” is an overstatement, even if he was the quarterback. Eli was two miraculous catches away from being another footnote in New York sports history. Surely you remember one. Can you say Helmet Catch?
E. Manning didn’t even have a winning record, with a final tally of 117 wins and 117 losses. And in 16 years, he was never selected first—or second-team All-Pro. But won-lost records are not a hurdle to becoming a Hall of Famer if you played in New York. Former Jets star Joe Namath’s record was 62-63-4, and he won only a single Super Bowl. But that was in SB III, the first victory for the AFL/AFC over the NFL/NFC, so it was historic.
Every year, selectors have multiple meetings and hear numerous presentations, stats, stories, and quotes about why somebody belongs in the Hall of Fame. Some of these players are discussed so often that the presenters invent a new way to make an impression.
I am definitely guilty of inventing a way. By 2016, former Raiders quarterback Ken Stabler had been rejected three previous times as a finalist. Raider Nation was very emotional because Stabler had died in 2015. Desperate to make my case, I took a very Raider-like approach—I sued.
When the selectors met, a document was in front of each of them. Here is the cover of that document (you might need a computer rather than a smartphone to see this and another chart further down)
It went on for 11 pages, making a solid case for Stabler’s induction, using witness statements, data, and everything else we could conjure. Stabler was inducted posthumously, a bittersweet victory.
Let’s get back to the challenge of selecting the next Hall of Fame class. Along with returning finalists and well-known newcomers, many careers are worthy of consideration. Some have been discussed, and others not so much, although some of their credentials are superior to some already in the Hall.
What to do? Suing isn’t appropriate, so we created a chart, now in Beta form, that puts everything into an understandable context. I teamed up with respected football researcher and historian John Turney, who tracks everybody who played the game — as a pro, anyway. We refined a chart that rated all players using the same criteria.
Rating Points Breakdown: Seasons played = 1; Pro Bowl=1; All-Conference=2; Second Team All-Conference = 1; Consensus All-Pro = 3; First Team All-Pro = 2; Second Team All-Pro = 1; MVP/POY = 3; Other POY = 1; All-Decade = 5.
We noted that kickers and punters had inordinately high grades because of superior longevity. So, we diminished their points to 67 percent of the total, which seemed to put them in a better perspective.
Spoiler Alert: Eli Manning rates only No. 71 on this chart, behind eight of his first-year classmates.
The No. 1 rated player on this Modern Era chart is a first-year prospect whose name we didn’t even mention earlier, and you didn’t even notice. Be honest, did you note that Marshal Yanda’s name was not mentioned?
You should have. As a sensational guard for the Baltimore Ravens, Yanda began his career as Defensive Rookie of the Year, then was first or second-team All-Pro seven times, a first-team consensus All-Pro three times, named to eight Pro Bowls and was a unanimous selection to the 2010 All-Decade team.
You knew that, right? You might also note that the No. 2 rated player is former Raiders guard Steve Wisniewski, who selectors haven’t even discussed through his 18 years of eligibility. Among other things, he was a nine-time first or second-team All-Pro and was selected to the 1990s All-Decade team.
Mmm, maybe we need to devalue points for guards. Regardless, I guarantee we will hear all that data and more in the selection meetings.
Here is a graphic of the chart as of Thursday night (Aug. 8). I think it is a beginning, but we are open to input on how to improve it.
Next: The Hall of Fame Senior Class
Players with green backgrounds are first-year eligible.
Players with orange backgrounds are returning finalists from 2024
Great article Frank. These types of charts take a ton of transcription so its super easy to make a few errors. I wonder if Yanda's numbers got a little conflated with his teammate Terrell Suggs given the text of the article and looking at his total All Pros and Player of the year total.
Also, at the tail end Pouncey only shows 4 Pro Bowls but adds up to 13 pts which seems high given the established point methods.
Thanks for taking the time to put this together, great stuff.