NFL Week 11: Division rivals in key battles
Steelers-Ravens, Packers-Bears headline weekend
Two Saquon Barkley touchdown bursts in the fourth quarter helped propel Philadelphia (8-2) to a key NFC East win over the Washington Commanders, 26-18. The win lengthens the Eagles’ lead over Jayden Daniels and crew to 1.5 games. A close game until Barkley’s heroics, Philly looked like the more experienced, big game-ready team when the fourth quarter rolled around. The rookie Daniels and the Commanders (7-4), with back-to-back losses for the first time this season, seem like they have hit a bit of a wall, though both defeats came against quality teams.
This game between two NFC East squads is not the only important divisional game this weekend. The showcase of the early-window games Sunday finds the Baltimore Ravens (7-3) traveling to Pittsburgh (7-2) to play the rival Steelers with the AFC North lead on the line. Another early game features the grandaddy of all NFL rivalries, as the Packers (6-3) visit a Bears team looking to end a dismal three-game losing streak.
In the late window, the 49ers (5-4) host the Seahawks (4-5), with both teams eyeing the chance to gain on idle Arizona (6-4) in the NFC West. The game marks the 2024 home debut of Christian McCaffrey, the 49ers’ star back who returned to the lineup last week in San Francisco’s narrow win over Tampa.
The other headliner game in Week 11, played in the late window, sees the unbeaten defending champion Chiefs taking on host Buffalo (8-2). These teams have a history of postseason fireworks, with Kansas City prevailing in all three of their recen playoff games, including the classic 42-36 overtime shootout following the 2021 season. But the Bills have turned the tables during the regular, beating the Chiefs in Kansas City in each of the last three seasons.
Will the Bills at home keep that streak going? Will the Ravens or Steelers get the edge in the AFC North? Click on the links below to see a breakdown of the individual games and who we think will come out on top in each.
NFL Week 10: All times are Eastern
BYES: Bucs, Cardinals, Giants, Panthers
Ravens at Steelers: Sunday, Nov. 17, 1 p.m., ET, CBS
Packers at Bears: Sunday, Nov. 17, 1 p.m., ET, FOX
Colts at Jets: Sunday, Nov. 17, 1 p.m., ET, CBS
Raiders at Dolphins: Sunday, Nov. 17, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Rams at Patriots: Sunday, Nov. 17, 1 p.m. ET, FOX
Browns at Saints: Sunday, Nov. 17, 1 p.m. ET, FOX
Vikings at Titans: Sunday, Nov. 17, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Jaguars at Lions: Sunday, Nov. 17, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Falcons at Broncos: Sunday, Nov. 17, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS
Seahawks at 49ers: Sunday, Nov. 17, 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX
Chiefs at Bills: Sunday Nov. 17, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
Bengals at Chargers: Sunday, Nov. 17, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
*The preview for Monday night’s Houston vs. Dallas game will be posted on Monday morning, 11/18. That matchup is not included in the games below.
Ravens at Steelers
Sunday, Nov. 10, 1 p.m. ET, Acrisure Stadium (Pittsburgh), CBS
The marquee matchup of the early-window games is the latest installment of the AFC’s most fearsome rivalry. It features one of the more interesting quarterback matchups of the season. A couple of hiccups notwithstanding, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens’ offense have been on a heater, with the dual-threat quarterback playing arguably the most efficient football of his career. His QB counterpart Sunday is a rejuvenated Russell Wilson, who is 3-0 as a starter since taking over in Week 7.
Both teams want to run the football. The rushing attack of Jackson and NFL rushing leader Derrick Henry (1,120 yards) ranks as the league’s most lethal. Najee Harris (645 yards) is the featured back for Pittsburgh. Both ground games go up against stout run defenses.
This Ravens-Pittsburgh series has been recently dominated by the Steelers, who have won seven of the last eight. But that trend is interrupted on Sunday, as Lamar and Henry put their stamp on this game in a big way. We see the Baltimore run defense stuffing Harris; we do not see the Steelers doing the same to Henry.
PICK: Baltimore 34, Pittsburgh 16
Key matchup: CB Marlon Humphrey (BAL) vs. WR George Pickens (PIT)
Key matchup: RT Roger Rosengarten (BAL) vs. Edge T.J. Watt (PIT)
Packers at Bears
Sunday, Nov. 17, 1 p.m. ET, Soldier Field (Chicago), FOX
The oldest rivalry in pro football meets for the 209th time at Soldier Field on Sunday. The Pack come off a bye following a dispiriting loss to first-place Detroit — a game in which Green Bay dominated in most statistical categories except the one that matters. What killed the Packers in that loss were ten penalties that killed their drives or sustained Detroit marches. A repeat of that flag parade will keep the Bears in this one.
Jordan Love did not throw a TD pass in his last two games. Still, the Packers’ passing offense is one of the league’s more dynamic. Romeo Doubs and Green Bay’s talented receiving corps going up against Chicago’s stingy pass defense, led by All-Pro corner Jaylon Johnson, will be worth watching.
The Bears’ season, so promising before their showdown with Washington, has turned to crap. Last week’s 19-3 home loss to New England was particularly galling. Rookie QB Caleb Williams has reverted to his early season inconsistency. The Bears were 1-of-15 on third downs against New England. The Packers come in with the sixth-best third-down defense in the NFL. This does not bode well for Chicago’s outlook against their oldest foe.
Earlier this season we thought Travis Etienne’s Week 1 fumble against Miami was the costliest play of the season. No more. The Commanders’ Hail Mary in Week 8 has sent the Bears into a tailspin of misery. The blight continues this Sunday.
PICK: Green Bay 26, Chicago 9
Key matchup: WR Romeo Doubs (GB) vs. CB Jaylon Johnson (CHI)
Colts at Jets
Sunday, Nov. 17, 1 p.m. ET, MetLife Stadium (Meadowlands, NJ), CBS
Finally, a chance for the Colts to avenge that Super Bowl III loss to Joe Willie and the Jets. New York snapped a 5-game losing streak against Houston and hopes to establish some momentum before Aaron Rodgers decides to leave and partner with Bobby Jr. to stamp out vaccines. The Colts have lost two in a row, and the Flacco magic from 2023 is not catching on with his new team. We see Sauce and the Jets’ tough passing D picking of three Flacco’s sillier passes, and Rodgers hooks up with Garrett Wilson for a couple of TD passes. This will offset a 100-yard day by Jonathan Taylor.
PICK: Jets 23, Colts 16
Key matchup: WR Michael Pittman (IND) vs. CB Sauce Gardner (NYJ)
Raiders at Dolphins
Sunday, Nov. 17, 1 p.m. ET, Hard Rock Stadium (Miami), CBS
Finally, a chance for the Dolphins to avenge the Sea of Hands playoff heartbreaker. The Dolphins broke a string of tough losses by besting the Rams last Monday, and now seem poised for a mid-to-late-season run. A healthy Miami squad looks much better than their 3-6 record, with a stingy pass defense now complementing a restored and balanced offense. As for the Raiders’ season, let’s just say it’s tough to spot a silver lining in the silver and black. Tua and Tyreek will set the tone early in our Shellacking of the Week.
PICK: Miami 41, Las Vegas 6
Key matchup: CB Jack Jones (LV) vs. WR Tyreek Hill (MIA)
Rams at Patriots
Sunday, Nov. 17, 1 p.m. ET, Gillette Stadium (Foxboro, MA), FOX
The Rams’ 22-15 loss to Miami on Monday was a disappointing end to a string of clutch wins that brought them temporarily back to .500. The Patriots came up with their second surprising road win of the season, 19-3, over the sliding Chicago Bears.
L.A. had all sorts of problems Monday protecting Matthew Stafford, and keeping the veteran QB upright will again be key against a New England defense that sometimes looks like one of the NFL’s best units. It held Chicago to 1-of-14 on third down, and the Rams were not much better against Miami (3-of-12). The Patriots will be in position to win their second straight if those third-down numbers hold this week.
On offense, Drake Maye is doing OK — at least he outperformed fellow rookie QB Caleb Williams last week. The Rams allow 127 yards rushing per game, so we expect Rhamondre Stevenson to get 20-plus carries on Sunday. But we like Stafford and the passing game to bounce back and for L.A. to again even its record.
PICK: Rams 24, New England 20
Key matchup: T Rob Havenstein (LAR) vs. DE Keion White (NE)
Browns at Saints
Sunday, Nov. 17, 1 p.m. ET, Caesars Superdome (New Orleans), FOX
We should get hazard pay for having to review this game. Only a shocking Saints win over Atlanta kept this likely stinker from featuring teams with a combined 10-game losing streak. Derek Carr was sharp (269 yards, two TD passes, 126.9 rating) and Alvin Kamara his usual all-purpose presence in the New Orleans upset victory. The Saints will need an even better effort on the ground this week to keep a nearly healthy Myles Garrett and a still tough Cleveland pass defense from teeing off on Carr.
For Cleveland’s offense, Jameis Winston was remarkable in the upset win over the Ravens — remarkably awful in his three-interception performance in the Week 8 loss to the Chargers. To help him out, the Browns will likely lean on RB Nick Chubb to exploit a Saints run defense that was gashed for 181 yards by Atlanta.
Chubb will have 80-plus yards on the ground, but Winston’s decision-making will sink Cleveland’s hopes for the road win.
PICK: New Orleans 23, Cleveland 10
Key matchup: DE Myles Garrett (CLE) vs. T Taliese Fuaga (NO)
Vikings at Titans
Sunday, Nov. 17, 1 p.m. ET, Nissan Stadium (Nashville, TN), CBS
After a fast start to the season, Minnesota’s Sam Darnold may be coming back to Earth. His three-interception effort against a bad Jacksonville pass defense nearly cost the Vikings in Week 10. The Titans present one of the NFL’s best pass defenses, so Minnesota fans have a right to be concerned about how Darnold might fare Sunday.
Will Levis starts his second game in a row. He comes off his best performance of the year, throwing two TDs and committing no turnovers against the Chargers’ top-ranked scoring defense. What killed Tennessee last week were penalties (nine), and they will need to clean that up to have a chance.
We say Brian Flores’ pressure packages will have a confused Levis returning to his befuddling play from earlier this season. Darnold plays a more-or-less error-free game and hits Justin Jefferson on a pair of big downfield plays.
PICK: Minnesota 21, Tennessee 13
Key matchup: WR Justin Jefferson (MIN) vs. CB L'Jarius Sneed (TEN)
Jaguars at Lions
Sunday, Nov. 17, 1 p.m. ET, Ford Field (Detroit, MI), CBS
This Week 11 game is the Jaguars’ second straight against an NFC North team, after losing 12-7 to Minnesota. The much maligned Jacksonville D picked off the Vikings Sam Darnold three times. This week, they go against a Lions team that survived five interceptions by QB Jared Goff but still staged a second-half comeback that wiped out a 16-point halftime deficit for a 26-23 win over Houston.
Per usual, the Lions will look to assert the running game with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, and have Goff play-action off it. Meanwhile, the Jaguars’ offense stalled against the Vikings behind backup QB Mac Jones. He starts for the second week in a row, replacing Trevor Lawrence, who is again out with a shoulder injury. As is usually the case with a backup QB, the Jags really need to establish a ground game, but RB Tank Bigsby has been nursing a sore ankle and, too, might miss Sunday’s game.
The Houston debacle was Goff’s second consecutive performance. He’ll need a third for Jax to have a chance. We suspect the veteran QB will play just fine against a typically compliant Jaguars’ pass defense.
PICK: Detroit 31, Jacksonville 16
Key matchup: NB Jarrion Jones (JAX) vs. WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET)
———Late Games———
Falcons at Broncos
Sunday, Nov. 17, 4:05 p.m. ET, Empower Field at Mile High (Denver), FOX
Few of us probably looked at the NFL schedule at the start of the season and pointed out this matchup as one of interest. But there you have it — the first-place Falcons come off a letdown against New Orleans and now have to travel to a tough place to play against a Broncos team reeling from a blocked field goal that denied them a win at Arrowhead last week.
The Broncos’ strength is their defense. Aside from getting roasted by the Ravens, the Broncos’ pass defense, led by corner Patrick Surtain II, is fierce. Kirk Cousins continues to produce numbers throwing to receivers Drake London and Darnell Mooney, but running back Bijan Robinson, a star in the making, is likely to see more touches this week, even though the Broncos also showcase one of the league’s sturdier run defenses.
Bo Nix and the Denver offense sputtered during the team’s two recent losses (Ravens, Chiefs), though the rookie QB did throw two TDs and had no picks against the Chiefs. The Broncos struggle to move the ball on the ground, but the Falcons have trouble stopping the run, and the pass, for that matter. So this might be a chance for Nix to put up some hardy numbers.
It seems like we might be leaning toward Denver, but the loss to the last-second loss to the Chiefs will reverberate through this game. Cousins usually responds to a subpar effort with a forceful one.
PICK: Falcons 21, Denver 20
Key matchup: WR Drake London (ATL) vs. Patrick Surtain II (DEN)
Key matchup: WR Darnell Mooney (ATL) vs. NB Ja’Quan McMillian (DEN)
Seahawks at 49ers
Sunday, Nov. 17, 4:05 p.m. ET, Levi’s Stadium (Santa Clara, CA), FOX
This Week 11 tilt is a rematch of San Francisco’s 36-24 win over Seattle on Thursday Night Football in Week 7. The 49ers won the turnover battle that night (3-0) and built a 20-point advantage before Seattle rallied. Per usual, Seattle got nothing from its running game in the first meeting, and Geno Smith ended up throwing the ball 52 times.
The Seahawks come off a bye and welcome back star WR D.K. Metcalf, who missed the last two games, both Seattle losses at home, with an MCL sprain. In the Week 9 overtime loss to the Rams, Smith threw three TDs — and three interceptions, giving him 10 picks on the year. The 49ers pass defense can be an opportunistic group, and Smith throwing the ball all over the lot will hurt his team’s chances Sunday.
San Francisco comes off a Week 10 win over Tampa, a victory made more difficult by a special teams unit that might be the worst in football. Brock Purdy tends to play well against the Seahawks, as does All-Pro back Christian McCaffrey, who played his first action of the season against the Bucs. In the two games against Seattle a year ago, CMC rushed for a combined 212 yards and three touchdowns. His presence makes San Francisco much more difficult to stop in the red zone.
For the past decade, this rivalry might place second only to Pittsburgh-Baltimore. The 49ers seem to have Seattle’s number in recent years, winning six meetings in a row. That streak continues this Sunday.
PICK: San Francisco 31, Seattle 17
Key matchup: WR D.K. Metcalf (SEA) vs. CB Deommodore Lenoir (SF)
Chiefs at Bills
Sunday, Nov. 17, 4:25 p.m. ET, Highmark Stadium (Buffalo, NY), CBS
The centerpiece of Sunday’s late window features two teams that almost always send the entertainment meter into the red when they square off. The undefeated Chiefs (9-0) pit their outstanding defense against Josh Allen and a Buffalo offense that has scored 30 or more points in each of the last four games, all wins.
This week, Buffalo sees the return of Amari Cooper, who missed the last couple of games with a wrist issue. Allen and KC defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo renew their annual confrontation. The Bills QB has probably had as good a track record against a Spags-led Chiefs defense as anyone in the AFC (3-1 record, with nine TD passes and two 300-yard passing games).
Meanwhile, KC’s offense continues to have problems scoring points — odd in that the Chiefs boast a top-10 overall offense and have the best third-down conversion percentage in the league. QB Patrick Mahomes had a solid game against a tough Denver defense, but four sacks disrupted potential scoring drives. The Bills have 25 sacks on the year, so protecting Mahomes could again be an issue for the defending champs on Sunday.
Buffalo (8-2) at home and on a roll seems to point to a Bills win. But to the frustration of many outside Kansas City, the Chiefs keep winning games they shouldn’t. Sunday will be no exception.
PICK: Chiefs 24, Buffalo 21
Key matchup: TE Travis Kelce (KC) vs. S Taylor Rapp (BUF)
Key matchup: CB Trent McDuffie (KC) vs. WR Amari Cooper (BUF)
Bengals at Chargers
Sunday Night Football, Nov. 17, 8:20 p.m. ET, SoFi Stadium (Los Angeles), NBC
The Bengals come off a second brutal, last-minute loss to the Ravens, 35-34, when a two-point conversion attempt to take the lead failed. Since that happened last Thursday night, Cincinnati (4-6) does com into this SNF battle with an extra three days rest. Bengals fans have to hope the extra rest doesn’t cool the white-hot combination of Joe Burrow (428 yards passing) and Ja’Marr Chase (264 yards receiving), especially against a Chargers defense that has allowed the fewest points in the NFL. That defense gets stronger for Week 11 with the return of the Chargers’ best corner, Kristian Fulton, the man most likely to draw the assignment of covering Chase, who missed the last two games with a hamstring injury.
On offense, the Chargers want to rely on a strong running game, but J.K. Dobbins, who started the season fast, has been finding little room to run in recent weeks. But his decline has been offset by Justin Herbert’s improved play (14-of-18 in last week’s 27-17 win over Tennessee). The Bengals’ defense ranks 23rd overall and the same against the pass, so look for Herbert and young receivers Ladd McConkey (four touchdown catches) and Quentin Johnson (five TDs) to have prime performances in prime time.
PICK: L.A. Chargers 23, Cincinnati 20
Key matchup: WR Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) vs. CB Kristian Fulton (LAC)
