Wild Card Sunday: Packers-Eagles top tripleheader
Rookie quarterbacks make their first postseason starts on the road.
BREAKING NFL NEWS: The NFL announced Thursday that, in response to the devastating fires in the Los Angeles area, Monday night’s Wild Card Round game between the Minnesota Vikings and the Los Angeles Rams will be moved to State Farm Stadium in Phoenix, Arizona. The game will kick off at its scheduled 8:00 p.m. ET time.
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With a Saturday Wild Card doubleheader under their belt, NFL fans should be all limbered up and their second wind kicking in — you need to be in football shape to watch the trio of playoff games set for this Sunday.
First, the Denver Broncos travel to Buffalo to battle the Bills. The middle game features the No. 2 NFC seed Philadelphia Eagles hosting the Green Bay Packers. Finally, the Washington Commanders go to Tampa Bay to face the Buccaneers.
Oddly enough, two of the three games are rematches of Week 1 meetings: the Eagles topped the Packers, 34-29, in Sao Paulo, Brazil, and the Bucs laid the wood to Washington, 37-20, to spoil Jayden Daniels’ NFL debut.
We think the marquee matchup of the day is the NFC’s No. 2 seed Eagles hosting the Packers, who managed to squander an opportunity for the No. 6 slot by losing last week to Chicago on a last-second field goal.
This is the fourth playoff meeting between the two franchises, with the Eagles winning two of the previous three. The first time these teams met in the playoffs was the NFL title game back in 1960, when the Eagles beat Vince Lombardi’s Green Bay team, 17-13. It would be the Eagles last title until 2017.
The two teams also met in Philadelphia in a memorable Divisional Round game in 2004, again won by Philadelphia. Trailing by three points late, quarterback Donavan McNabb and the Eagles converted a 4th-and-26 against a curious two-deep coverage used by Green Bay. The Eagles then kicked a game-tying field goal, then another in overtime to win 20-17.
In the playoffs following the 2010 season, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers beat Philadelphia in the Wild Card Round on the way to their last Super Bowl title.
Rookie quarterback Bo Nix leads Denver into Buffalo to play MVP frontrunner Josh Allen and the Bills. Despite being AFC charter members, the Broncos and Bills met only once in the postseason, the 1991 AFC title game, won by Buffalo, 10-7. The Bills went on to lose Super Bowl XXVI to Washington, that organization’s last Super Bowl victory.
The offspring of that Washington championship team travels to Tampa Bay for the nightcap of Sunday’s tripleheader. Quarterback Jayden Daniels joins Denver’s Nix as the only two rookie signal-callers to start a playoff game this postseason. (Only three first-year quarterbacks have won a road playoff game in their first-ever start, so both Nix and Daniels have history working against them.) The upstart Commanders are one of this season’s great stories and look to add an inspiring chapter to that narrative with a road win over Baker Mayfield and a resilient Bucs.
Here’s a closer look at the three games set for Sunday.
Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills
Sunday, Jan. 12, 1:00 p.m. ET, Rich Stadium (Orchard Park, NY), CBS
Both teams come into this game mostly healthy — as of Thursday, no starters for either squad are listed as questionable. The center of attention of this game will be the Broncos top-flight defense against Josh Allen and Buffalo’s high-scoring attack.
Linebacker Nik Bonitto keys a Denver pass rush that led the NFL in sacks (63), while the Bills allowed by far the fewest (14). A potentially great individual matchup in this game will be Bonitto squaring off against Buffalo’s Pro Bowl tackle Dion Dawkins.
Broncos’ All-Pro corner Patrick Surtain heads one of the NFL’s best secondaries. Despite his presence and that of Denver’s formidable pass rush, the Broncos have struggled to stop some of the league’s better QBs. Of its 10 wins, Denver beat Baker Mayfield — and that’s pretty much it in terms of taking down a top-tier QB.
Buffalo’s Josh Allen, a candidate for league MVP, qualifies as a top-tier signal-caller.
Bills offense is one of a kind
The Bills boast a historically balanced offense — the first NFL team ever to rush and pass for 30 or more touchdowns in the same season. Allen triggers that balanced attack. While the concept of democracy may have hit a wall in 2024, the veteran Bills QB was quite democratic when it came to distributing the ball — remarkably, no Bills receiver topped 1,000 yards this season, even though Allen passed for 3,721 yards and 28 of the team’s 30 passing TDs.
It will be interesting to see how vigorously Allen goes at Denver’s secondary on Sunday. Wide receiver Amari Cooper did not produce as much as expected following his trade from Cleveland, but his head-to-heads with Surtain could be pivotal.
Allen continues to be as much a threat running the ball as he is throwing it. With 32 rushing yards on Sunday, he will pass Hall of Famer Steve Young for most postseason rushing yards by a quarterback. Denver will likely commit a defender to spy on Allen, but a parade of opponents have tried and failed with that strategy. Allen rushed for career-best 12 touchdowns, and Buffalo running back James Cook added 16, in addition to rushing for 1,009 yards on the season. Despite the sack numbers and the presence of Surtain, Denver’s run defense is statistically superior than its pass defense, allowing 96 yards per game.
As the TD numbers suggest, the Bills are lethal in the red zone, second only to the Ravens in converting such opportunities. But Denver is third best in keeping offenses out of the end zone. So, whichever team holds to its regular season pattern of red-zone success will have the upper hand.
Opportunistic defense
As for the other side of the ball, our instinct says that a rookie quarterback starting his first playoff game on the road (in cold weather) is problematic at best. But Denver’s Bo Nix has been defying odds since his slow start to the season. The ex-Oregon standout has been especially effective on the road of late, and with two touchdown throws on Sunday, he will be the first rookie in NFL history to throw multiple TD passes in five consecutive games (including playoffs). Receiver Cortland Sutton finished 2024 with three TDs in his last four games, and become a favorite target for Nix in the red zone and on third down. He is likely to draw Buffalo’s best corner, Christian Benford, who tallied 10 passes defensed this season.
The Buffalo defense Nix faces surrenders a lot of yards, but is opportunistic. As a team, Buffalo created 32 takeaways and generated a league-best plus-24 in turnover differential. That stat seems to bode well for a Bills team going against a rookie in a pressurized setting. However, Nix, who threw 23 touchdowns to 12 picks, showed impressive stretches of ball security this season (recall that he had zero TD passes and for INTs after the first two games).
Pressure on Nix will likely determine whether Buffalo can force turnovers. Like Buffalo, Denver protected its quarterback fairly well in this season, allowing 24 sacks, third best in the NFL. Defensive end Greg Rousseau (eight sacks) keys a balanced Buffalo pass rush, and longtime Bronco Von Miller finished 2024 strong with a sack in each of his last two games. A motivated and healthy Miller can still be a force; his matchup with Denver tackle Garett Bolles will be worth keeping an eye on.
The Bills at home in January means weather could be an issue. Snow is predicted, but the Bills seem comfortable executing in all kinds of elements. Allen is too present as a weapon, and Nix, despite the deserved praise for his development this season, will make a couple of key mistakes.
PICK: Buffalo 26, Denver 20
Key matchup: CB Patrick Surtain II (DEN) vs. Amari Cooper (BUF)
Key matchup: LB Nik Bonitto (DEN) vs. T Dion Dawkins (BUF)
Key matchup: T Garett Bolles (DEN) vs. LB Von Miller (BUF)
Key matchup: WR Cortland Sutton (DEN) vs. CB Christian Benford (BUF)
Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, Jan. 12, 4:30 p.m. ET, Lincoln Financial Field (Philadelphia, PA), FOX
This is a rematch of the season opener in Brazil, won by Philadelphia, 34-29. In the final seconds, Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love suffered a leg injury that forced him to miss a handful of games. He was replaced the following week by backup Malik Willis, who played solid football in Love’s stead. Love also comes into this Wild Card Round matchup with an injury issue. More on that later.
The Packers know what going on the road and winning a Wild Card Round game is all about. Last season, they laid a 48-32 whuppin’ on the host Cowboys. The Eagles are a better team than Dallas and come off what was essentially a bye week. Saquon Barkley, the soon-to-be-named NFL Offensive Player of the Year, sat against the Giants, as did several other starters.
Stopping — or at least containing — Barkley and Philadelphia’s second-ranked running game will be the focus of Green Bay defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley. The Packers defend the run well and faced Jahmyr Gibbs twice this season. So they have some experience dealing with explosive, speedy backs.
Only half the battle
But limiting Barkley as a runner is only half the battle. Much like the Lions, the Eagles feature an extremely well-balanced attack. Shut down Barkley, and quarterback Jalen Hurts can hurt you through the air, throwing to the likes of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. And Hurts is also effective in pulling down the ball and running.
(The veteran QB was in concussion protocol after a Week 17 incident against the Commanders. Hurts returned to practice on Wednesday and reportedly looked fine.)
Both teams have top-tier defenses. Hefley’s crew struggled somewhat in the first half of the season before getting on an impressive roll (at least until they went to Minnesota in Week 17). However, injuries have hit Green Bay hard. The Pack will be without its best corner, Jaire Alexander, who was placed on IR. Three other defensive starters are listed as questionable with injuries.
Having all hands on deck is pretty useful when trying to stop Barkley, Hurts et al.
Before their two losses to finish the season, Green Bay was playing as well as anyone in the league, and some thought the pack to be the most dangerous team heading into the Wild Card Round.
But those setbacks and the health concerns surrounding Love now challenge that perception. The quarterback injured his elbow in the Week 18 loss to the Bears and has been limited in practice so far this week (as of Thursday). If he is unable to go or the injury acts up during the game, Willis will need to be ready to take over.
Eagles defense — much improved from last season
Either Green Bay quarterback has to deal with the loss of receiver Christian Watson, who suffered a torn ACL against Chicago. With Watson sidelined, receivers Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed need to pick up the slack against an Eagles defense vastly improved from the one Baker Mayfield and Tampa Bay picked apart in the Wild Card Round a year ago.
The additions of rookie corners Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean have solidified the back end and galvanized Philly’s defensive revival under DC Vic Fangio — the Eagles finished No. 1 both in overall defense and in defending the pass. How well the rooks and veteran corner Darius Slay Jr. cover Doubs and Reed will be key to this game.
Up front, DT Jalen Carter was named All-Pro in just his second season. If Green Bay wants to open holes for Josh Jacobs and give Love time to push the downfield, the interior of the Packers’ offensive line needs to handle Carter. If Willis starts or Love is limited, then a big day from Jacobs becomes even more critical. Not that Philadelphia’s defense, with Carter manning the middle, is a slouch against the run.
Both franchises have solid special teams, so there does not seem to be a clear-cut advantage in that area. Brandon McManus has been a godsend for Green Bay, making 20 of 21 field goals after being signed in mid-October. Philadelphia’s Jake Elliott had in 2024 his worst percentage (77.8, 26-of-38) in three seasons. However, his 16-of-16 mark in the postseason should give Philadelphia fans confidence.
Perhaps the Eagles have a rust-induced rough patch at the beginning of the game; Green Bay needs to take advantage of a slow Philadelphia start. A healthy Packers team does have the ability to come back from an early deficit, but we think a bad start puts a less-than-100-percent Love and an injury-scarred offense in a precarious situation. And we predict that Hurts, even with the layoff, and the Philadelphia offense will come out firing on all cylinders.
PICK: Philadelphia 31, Green Bay 21.
Key matchup: WR Romeo Doubs (GB) vs. CB Quinyon Mitchell (PHI)
Key matchup: CB Carrington Valentine (GB) vs. WR A.J. Brown (PHI)
Key matchup: LB vs. RB Saquon Barkley (PHI)
Key matchup: G Elgton Jenkins (GB) vs. DT Jalen Carter (PHI)
Sunday, Jan. 12, 8:00 p.m. ET, Raymond James Stadium (Tampa Bay, FL), NBC
Rookie of the Year frontrunner Jayden Daniels caps off a terrific first season with a playoff start against former No. 1 overall pick Baker Mayfield and the Bucs.
It’s been a dream season for the Commanders and first-year head coach Dan Quinn, though his team did limp at times to the finish line, going 3-4 over their final seven games. Still, some of those wins — most notably the come-from-behind win over the Eagles in Week 16 — were cornerstone victories, inspired as they were by clutch play from Daniels.
Washington would like to establish the run to take some pressure off Daniels. But the Bucs are tough to run against, thanks to the massive presence of nose tackle Vita Vea. Tampa does struggle to defend against the pass, so don’t be surprised to see Daniels trying to get his favorite target, WR Terry McLaurin, involved early. The Pro Bowler McLaurin against Jamel Dean figures to be an important individual battle.
Baker’s postseason success bodes well
Meanwhile, Mayfield comes off his best season ever. The former No. 1 overall pick also has a background of performing well in the postseason. In last year’s playoffs, Mayfield passed for 300-plus yards and three TDs in both games (a win over Philadelphia, a loss to Detroit). He has the chance to join Josh Allen and Matt Ryan as the only QBs in playoff history with three consecutive games of 300 or more yards and three touchdowns passing.
Mayfield is syncing well with veteran Mike Evans and blossoming rookie Jalen McMillan. Evans finished the season with his final four games with 31 receptions, but McMillan’s close to the year was even more eye-popping. The rookie scored seven touchdowns over Tampa’s final five games, and Mayfield seems to show more confidence in him with each passing week.
Washington counters with the league’s third-best pass defense. Marshon Lattimore will likely cover Evans, and the two have a history going back to when the Commanders’ corner faced Tampa twice a year as a member of the New Orleans Saints.
Even more than with McMillan’s emergence, the arrival of rookie running back Bucky Irving gives the Tampa offense a balance missing last year. (Balanced offenses seem to be a contagion in this January’s postseason.) Washington’s stinginess against the pass does not carry over to its run defense, so expect Tampa OC Liam Coen to have Irving and backfield mate Rachaad White to test veteran LB Bobby Wagner and the Washington front seven early.
Calling on our rationale for picking Buffalo over Denver, we think Mayfield’s postseason experience and Daniels’ lack of it will be major factors that tilt this game towards the Bucs. Look for a big day from Mike Evans.
PICK: Tampa Bay 28, Washington 20
Key matchup: WR Terry McLaurin (WSH) vs. CB Jamel Dean (TB)
Key matchup: CB Marshon Lattimore (WSH) vs. WR Mike Evans (PHI)
Key matchup: C Tyler Biadaz (WSH) vs. NT Vita Vea (TB)
