Why Payton's take on Caleb is familiar

Mirrors NFL Draft Scout profile point for point

Bears quarterback Caleb Williams

🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈

First, let’s make it clear that we hope that Caleb Williams becomes that rarest of NFL creatures — a successful Chicago Bears quarterback.

At NFL Draft Scout we were ridiculed for strongly disagreeing with the consensus that USC’s Williams was the best quarterback in the 2024 NFL Draft. We rated him the No. 3 quarterback behind LSU’s Jayden Daniels and Carolina’s Drake Maye. We pointed out plenty of red flags, but these warnings were largely ignored.

During the last week, remarks by Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton made headlines echoing our exact concerns. Processing speed, missed reads, negative plays — check, check, check. We’re flattered, coach. Just cite your sources next time. When Payton received national headlines, it inspired us to revisit the whole misadventure.

Yes, this is an I-told-you-so story, and we admit to jumping on it while it still retains validity, in case new Chicago head coach Ben Johnson and an array of newcomers manage a rare feat for the Bears.

Let’s take a look at what has historically happened, which would be hysterical if it weren’t such a sad stigma for a great franchise.

With a respectful tip of the cap to Jay Cutler and Jim McMahon, the Bears just don’t produce great quarterbacks. The oldest franchise in NFL history (tied with Detroit) began 105 years ago and has only one quarterback in the Hall of Fame, Sid Luckman, from 75 years ago (1939–50).

So, it has been entertaining to watch the soaring expectations of star-starved Bears fans over Williams, the highly celebrated No. 1 overall pick in 2024. When he fell far short of bringing immediate success to the Bears last year — a ridiculous thought to begin with — the team rearranged the furniture, firing the offensive coordinator and then the head coach, and damned near everybody in sight. Here are the newcomers.

Front office changes:

• Kevin Warren as president and CEO: Warren replaces Ted Phillips in this role.

Coaching staff changes:

• Head coach: Ben Johnson was hired to replace Matt Eberflus.

• Defensive Coordinator: Dennis Allen replaced an unnamed defensive coordinator.

• Offensive Coordinator: Declan Doyle replaces Luke Getsy.

The Bears also made several changes to their assistant coaching staff, including the departures of several offensive staff members. New additions include:

• Eric Bieniemy as running backs coach

• Antwaan Randle El as assistant head coach/wide receivers

• Al Harris as defensive backs/passing game coordinator

• Jeremy Garrett as defensive line coach

• Richard Smith as linebackers coach

• Richard Hightower as Special Teams Coordinator

And there have been too many player personnel moves to list. If you want a preseason style look at the results, Johnson announced Wednesday that Williams and the whole first string will start against visiting Buffalo Sunday, 8 p.m. ET.

Presumably, all the changes were to create what is necessary for Williams to succeed. But this week, Payton introduced thoughts that could lead to the wild theory that maybe it is Williams who needs to change.

In his book American Kings: A Biography of the Quarterback, Seth Wickersham revealed a conversation that he had with Payton leading up to the 2024 NFL Draft, with the coach issuing a rare negative critique of the 2022 Heisman Trophy winner. Payton had doubts that Williams would "excel" in the NFL.

Payton was "worried a little" about Williams' processing speed, while feeling that there were "too many easy completions left on the field" and "open receivers that Williams fails to spot quickly.”

We were particularly intrigued by Payton saying his primary concern was "existential.”

The book also noted how Payton has a "formula weighted on negative plays in college that informs his evaluations." Williams' number was higher than Jayden Daniels, the No. 2 overall pick and eventual 2024 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award winner. It was also higher than Bo Nix, whom Payton and the Broncos selected with the No. 12 pick in the same draft.

C’mon coach, fess up. You got all that information from our unpopular profile on Williams back in April 2024, right down to the data spotlighting his inability to get rid of the ball, especially under pressure. We detailed each of your concerns in no uncertain terms. That resulted in going against the overwhelming majority that rated him No. 1. Again. We listed him No. 3, behind Daniels and Maye.

There were reasons Williams was so popular. He dominated college football, first at Oklahoma (2021) then during his two seasons at USC, with his dual-threat ability and raw talent. Many of Williams' highlight moments were ad-lib plays.

But after the Bears selected Williams No. 1 pick the party was over. In his rookie season, Williams had decent stats with 3,541 passing yards, 20 passing touchdowns, six interceptions and an 87.8 passer rating, while completing 62.5 percent of his passes. Williams also rushed for 489 yards. But Chicago went 5-12, lowlighted by a 10-game losing streak.

So it is no surprise the team has a new head coach. Johnson was the offensive coordinator in Detroit, where he brought out the best in quarterback Jared Goff. It will be interesting to follow the progress of this new coach-QB tandem.

🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈

As mentioned, I was particularly intrigued that Payton’s “primary concerns” were “existential” — how would Williams handle failure?

Williams had an extremely disappointing year in 2023, and there was reason for Payton to question the quarterback’s ability to handle disappointment. There was the infamous incident in which he was caught on national TV after a loss, jumping into the stands and crying in his mother’s arms.

My question goes to his role as a team leader. Why wasn’t he sharing his pain with teammates? If you must cry, do it in the locker room. But what made that episode more damning was Williams, in a since deleted post, criticizing TCU quarterback Max Duggan for crying in a 2022 press conference. Those combined facts created plenty of backlash.

I also wrestled with his conduct at the Indianapolis Combine, which I address in the profile. I was curious about his immersion in the Gen Z culture, which features high-tech devices as a constant appendage. The ability to program them to one’s own preference sounds great, but it stunts the ability to learn how to adapt.

I questioned how that would resonate in the convergence of cultures and ages within an NFL locker room — a space where adaptability isn’t optional and leadership isn’t self-programmed.

Here’s my profile of Williams from April of 2024.

🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈

Caleb Williams Profile

NFL Draft Scout, 4-10-24

QB · USC

OVERVIEW

Caleb Williams is the overwhelming people's choice to be the No.1 overall pick in th 2024 draft. We understand that, but we do not agree that he projects as the best, or even safest, short and long term quarterback in this draft. His 2023 season was littered with red flags that opened the door for further consideration on several levels. Still, his potential is astronomical. In three college seasons, one at Oklahoma and the final two at USC, Williams completed 66.9 percent of his passes for 10,082 yards and 93 touchdowns to 14 interceptions. He also added 966 yards and 27 scores on the ground.

Williams commanded attention with an amazing knack to create plays when everything appeared to break down, looking like a latter-day Johnny Football (Manziel) with a better attitude and superior athleticism. Williams was so stunning on those plays that it obfuscated his struggles under pressure to play in rhythm and on time — an important trait if you expect sustained success in the NFL. Williams' inconsistency to play in sync, in the pocket is a concern, although a terrible offensive line at 'SC often left little choice. The temptation to equate Williams to Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes must be avoided. Some traits are similar — athleticism, arm talent, awareness and off-script magicianry. So a stylistic comparison is understandable. But Williams is not Mahomes II. Projecting his NFL production, we see Williams being closer to Kyler Murray or Baker Mayfield, who also played for current USC coach Lincoln Riley. Not bad, but those two did not become instant NFL stars. Murray could not prevent his college/NFL coach from being fired and Mayfield is with his fourth team in two years.

If an NFL team is seeking a franchise quarterback in the 2024 draft, there are better alternatives than Williams, especially if the team wants a player who can deliver on time and on target right away. Yes, Williams can pull the rabbit out of the hat, but to be an NFL quarterback, reliability and consistency are more important than being entertaining. We discuss his positives and negatives in our scouting report below.

BACKGROUND

A phenomenal talent from Gonzaga High School, Williams was a four-star recruit by ESPN ratings and an even more impressive five-star grade by 247 Sports, the latter recognizing him as the nation's No. 1 recruit. His choice of Oklahoma for his college football journey, which paired him with the illustrious Lincoln Riley, created great excitement and expectations. And Williams delivered.

His freshman year in 2021 began on the bench behind Spencer Rattler, who was the five-star, No. 1 recruit from the 2019 prep class. But during a nail-biter against Texas in week 6, Williams was thrust into the spotlight after Rattler was benched. Seizing the moment, Williams spearheaded an exhilarating come-from-behind win, a performance that led to him taking the starting job for the rest of the season.

Despite the pressure of suddenly becoming the main man, Williams delivered by throwing for 1,912 yards on 212 attempts, had a 64.2 completion percentage, and earned an exceptional QB rating of 118.3. His 21 TDs and additional 559 yards from 64 runs rounded off an impressive debut season.

Williams followed Riley when the head coach moved to USC after the 2021 season. As a sophomore, Williams came through with a record-shattering season that earned him a Heisman Trophy. Playing 13 games, he threw for 4,080 yards on 450 attempts, completing 66 percent of his passes, and managing a QB rating of 118.6. His 37 TDs and 614 yards rushing provided ample proof that he was more than worth the hype. In 2023 he tried to carry a USC team with a bad offensive line and an overly generous defense. He tried to compensate by doing too much, and in so doing revealed some concerning traits.

ANALYSIS

Strengths

Williams flaunts a superlative arm talent that, again, sparks short-sighted comparisons to Mahomes. Williams' 2022 performance at USC was dazzling and earned him the Heisman Trophy. His knack for conjuring rabbit-out-of-hat plays in high-stakes moments is singular and can be awe-inspiring. Even under immense pressure, he often — but hardly always — managed a myriad of high-quality passes. As an athlete, he epitomizes agility and flexibility, with superior quickness, speed and balance in scramble situations. He generates surprising velocity on long passes, even throwing off-balance, by maximizing torque from his lower body on what seem to be arm throws. His accuracy, particularly on short timing routes, is impeccable, hitting receivers in stride for big YAC opportunities. Perhaps most amazing is that Williams threw only 14 interceptions in 1,099 passes over the last three years. However, he still must protect the ball better when running. A natural-born leader, Williams doesn't shy away from carrying the weight of the game on his shoulders, although he didn't hold up well all the time when tested on a bad USC team in 2023.

Weaknesses

Williams' weaknesses are hidden, or overlooked, because of his penchant for off-script heroics. You want to compare him to Mahomes? OK, let's do that. Mahomes fumbles approximately once every 100 touches against NFL defenses; Williams had turnover-worthy plays once every 32 plays (per Pro Football Focus). Despite raves to the contrary, Williams' pell-mell style often faltered against pressure. He showed a tendency to resort to fancy footwork while looking to escape and make a big play. He held on to the ball for an average of 4.6 seconds rather than settling for a short dump off or throwing the ball away to avoid a big loss. Living to play another play, a necessary instinct for long term success in the NFL, is not one of Williams' traits. Meanwhile, in the NFL, Mahomes averaged about 2.5 seconds to get rid of the ball against a blitz. Mahomes was sacked 11.4 percent of his dropbacks and Williams 19.4 percent. All this adds up to too many negative plays .

Williams is a bit shorter than ideal as a quarteback, standing at just 6-1 and weighing 215 pounds, but that puts him taller than Russell Wilson, Drew Brees, Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray, among whom only Brees achieved sustained NFL success. OK, Wilson played at a HOF level until getting big pay, an executive office and parking in Denver. Wilson is with Pittsburgh (3rd team in four years) and must rehabilitate himself to be a born-again top QB. Williams, who has been compared to Wilson, played through injuries in 2023, but that brings into question his vulnerability playing that style in the NFL against bigger, faster, tougher defenders. It is a lesson learned by last year's top pick, Bryce Young, who was sacked 67 times at Carolina, missed one game and threw 10 picks.

At USC, Williams played in a simplistic offense, so we must consider his potential in a more traditional pro offense. He does have a high football IQ, so he probably will adapt. His exclusive experience in the shotgun must be noted, as it was with Marcus Mariota after his sensational career at Oregon (2014; 2nd pick 2015). Mariota is with Washington, his fifth team in eight seasons. Williams' mechanics and footwork, though often camouflaged by his arm talent, must be refined to work in NFL offenses that are calibrated to a millisecond. Williams has a tendency to hold the ball loosely and away from his body, exposing him to potential strip sacks. He must stop playing hero ball and learn to play within the structure of an NFL offense. Can he overcome all these negatives? Probably, but some of those negatives are hard-wired and will take time to fix. And patience isn't an obvious virtue by NFL teams. Just ask Justin Fields, banished to Pittsburgh after three years in Chicago. Hear that, Caleb?

🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈

Mike Tanier from Too Deep Zone on Substack offered comparative data points by which to judge Williams under pressure:

Too much pressure

One of Williams’ most obvious strengths is his ability to keep plays alive, escape danger and make big throws under duress. Therefore, it’s shocking to see him produce some of the worst figures under pressure among the top prospects.

Passing under pressure (2023)

Bo Nix: 43-of-67 (64.2%), 603 yards, 9 TD, 1 INT, 6 sacks, 9.7 ANY/A

Jayden Daniels: 27-of-54 (50.0%), 524 yards, 7 TD, 0 INT, 22 sacks, 7.5 ANY/A

J.J. McCarthy: 54-of-79 (68.4%), 799 yards, 7 TD, 3 INT, 19 sacks, 6.6 ANY/A

Michael Penix: 64-of-147 (43.5%), 1,033 yards, 6 TD, 4 INT, 12 sacks, 5.5 ANY/A

Jordan Travis: 37-of-75 (49.3%), 601 yards, 4 TD, 2 INT, 14 sacks, 5.3 ANY/A

Drake Maye: 42-of-99 (43.4%), 750 yards, 8 TD, 3 INT, 29 sacks, 5.1 ANY/A

Caleb Williams: 47-of-105 (44.8%), 738 yards, 9 TD, 4 INT, 33 sacks, 3.5 ANY/A

Spencer Rattler: 62-of-117 (53.0%), 884 yards, 5 TD, 4 INT, 42 sacks, 3.2 ANY/A

🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈

Frankly: There is plenty to like in Caleb Williams, but certain concerns must be considered. We always ask if a prospect is ready for the NFL. This time we might ask if the NFL is ready for Caleb Williams, an uber example of a Gen-Z product who grew up with a smart device as a permanent appendage. Williams is socially aware and actively involved in the community.(Caleb Cares Foundation against bullying). Yet as a Gen-Z product he has customized things to his personal desire, as is possible on any app. At the combine he became the first attendee in history to blow off the crucial medical exams. He took part ONLY in the media interview, which he aced. Hell, it's an extension of social media, right? We don't give a damn how he colors his fingernails or what color his phone is. If we think he could step in and kick ass in the NFL we would take him in a red hot minute. But we believe he must be rewired to cope with the immense pressure he will see from NFL defenses, and as the face of a franchise on and off the field.

If a team is looking for a savior at quarterback, Williams probably will not make a bad team good right away. He couldn't do it at USC, so why should he be expected to do so against bigger, faster NFL defenses? Ask Bryce Young about that and he went against SEC defenses far superior to those in the Pac-12. Williams' helter-skelter mannerisms are not something upon which to build an NFL offense. He is a fascinating person on and off the field, and our fondest hope is that he goes to an NFL team and coach who can maximize his positives and minimize his negatives (Hello, Andy Reid). But, for now, we do not see Williams as a slam-dunk NFL franchise/savior quarterback. If you are looking for entertainment, Williams is your guy. If you are looking for a quick boost, we see other options. -- FC