TNF Week 5: Falcons host Baker, Bucs
Hicks Pick: Atlanta upends division rival at home; Gruden Breakdown
Thursday, October 3, 8:15 p.m. ET, Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta), Amazon Prime
See Jon Gruden's video breakdown at the bottom
Since when did last year’s most pathetic division, the NFC South — aka the “NFC Soused,” aka the “NFC Going South” — become a weekly showcase of compelling divisional games?
In Week 4, it was the Falcons (2-2) knocking off the visiting Saints in a 28-26 thriller, with Younghoe Koo kicking a 58-yard field goal on the game’s final play. This week, the Bucs (3-1) come calling on the heels of an impressive home win over Philadelphia. Baker Mayfield got off to a fast start in Week 4, throwing two TDs in the first quarter, and the Bucs D held Jalen Hurts and company to just 114 yards passing.
But the Eagles’ offense was still missing A.J. Brown. This week Kirk Cousins and the Falcons attack should pose a bigger challenge, especially if Tampa’s All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield is again sidelined with his foot injury. The concern for Atlanta is RB Bijan Robinson, who is dealing with a gamey hamstring. Another worry is that the Falcons have scored just five TDs in four games.
Injuries are hampering the Tampa offense, too. Mayfield needs to again get off to a quick start, but that will more difficult Thursday on the road, and especially if his favorite target, Mike Evans, is not able to go. The big wideout missed practice Monday with a calf issue. For Atlanta, Troy Anderson, who made our top 10 best-performance list for Week 4, could miss Thursday’s game with a knee injury.
The Falcons’ offense through four weeks is still finding itself. But the talent at the skill positions is undeniable, and we predict Cousins and crew catch fire on Thursday. Also, the Bucs defense is terrible against the run, so expect a balanced Atlanta attack. For Tampa, if the last three games set a pattern — a great win against Detroit, a dud versus Denver, a decisive triumph over the Eagles — then the Bucs are due for a flat performance. We will take those odds.
PICK: Atlanta 30, Tampa Bay 22
Key matchups
S Antoine Winfield Jr. or Christian Izien (TB) vs. QB Kirk Cousins (ATL): Hedging our bets here as to whether Winfield gives it a go on a troublesome foot. Izien has played solid football in his place, allowing seven receptions on 13 targets, and he has an INT and a forced fumble. But a healthy Winfield is a force of nature and a difference-maker, to be sure. Our hunch is Winfield will be less than 100 percent (if he’s in the lineup) and that Cousins exploits him or Izien on a couple of game-changing plays.
WR Chris Godwin (TB) vs. CB Mike Hughes (ATL): If Mike Evans goes for Tampa, the Falcons will either roll coverage towards him or put the bigger corner, A.J. Terrell, on the 6-4 receiver. That means Hughes and Godwin might see a lot of each other Thursday. Hughes is having a solid year and is a physical corner. As he does every year, Godwin plays in the shadow of Evans but presents as a model of consistency — he caught six or more passes in each of the first four games. Tampa could win if Godwin busts out with a big evening, but Hughes is a handful and will hold Godwin to fewer than five catches.
