TNF: Bengals, Ravens in AFC North battle
Hicks Pick: Gruden agrees — Baltimore outlasts Cincinnati for seventh win.
Thursday, Nov. 7, 8:20 p.m. ET, M&T Bank Stadium, Amazon Prime
In the wake of the voting electorate giving the middle finger to civility and common sense, boy do some of us need an entertaining game this Thursday night. If the Ravens and Bengals are obliging, a repeat of their first matchup of the season will hopefully point this misguided nation in the right direction.
Baltimore won that Week 5 game, one the most entertaining of the 2024 season, by chipping away at multiple 10-point fourth-quarter deficits. Lamar Jackson unveiled one of the top off-platform plays of the year, and the game eventually went to overtime, where the Ravens prevailed, 41-38.
The Ravens bounced back from the shocking Week 8 upset loss to Cleveland by throttling Denver 41-10.
Only Donald Trump worries less about a bad September than Cincinnati. Since digging themselves that annual hole, the Bengals have won four of six, hammering the Raiders last week, 41-27. A Bengals win Thursday not only lifts them to .500, it will send reverberations through the AFC North. They will close to within a game of Baltimore in the loss column, and a Cincinnati win means the Steelers, at the very least, keep their half-game lead in the division with a chance to expand that advantage Sunday against the Commanders.
Thursday’s game features quarterbacks coming off big Week 9 performances. Against the Broncos, Lamar Jackson was perfect, in terms of QB rating (158.3), completing 16 of 19 passes for 280 yards, with three TD passes. In the Bengals’ win, Joe Burrow threw five touchdowns, tying a career high.
Both signal-callers pass to a stable of receiving talent that is set to face compliant pass defenses Thursday — Baltimore’s surprisingly so, given the Pro Bowl talent in its secondary. Bengals’ superstar wideout Ja’Marr Chase torched the Ravens for 201 yards in Week 5, but Cincinnati may be without Tee Higgins, who caught two TDs in the first meeting. The receiver missed the last two games with a hamstring issue and is listed as questionable after not practicing this week.
The Ravens’ offense counters with Jackson throwing to Zay Flowers. If the Baltimore OL contains Trey Hendrickson (an NFL-best 11 sacks), then Lamar and Flowers should be able to attack downfield.
We can expect Derrick Henry to be a yardage factory for the Ravens on Thursday, but will his counterpart Thursday, Cincinnati back Chase Brown, replicate the 120-yard day he turned in against the Raiders? Hard to imagine he does so against a rugged Baltimore run defense that allows a mere 75 yards per game.
We think this rematch has a good chance of being another high-scoring barnburner. The Bengals’ offense may ready to go on a roll, but Henry and the Ravens’ running game will control the clock in the second half. Coach Gruden, in his video breakdown, concurs, both in the high-scoring nature of the game, and the result.
PICK: Baltimore 33, Cincinnati 30
Key matchups
TE Mike Gesicki (CIN) vs. S Kyle Hamilton (BAL): We expect the Ravens’ secondary to focus on stopping Ja’Marr Chase on the outside. This could give Gesicki several single-coverage opportunities. The veteran TE comes off his best game since joining Cincinnati — five catches for 100 and his first ever two TD receptions as a Bengal. Hamilton is an instinctive, athletic strong safety who makes plays all over the field, including on blitzes. It’s not clear how often the two will match up, but those snaps when they do will be interesting.
C Ted Karras (CIN) vs. NT Travis Jones (BAL): If the Bengals want to run the ball, then Karras needs to win this matchup. The Cincinnati center struggles in run blocking, but Jones, who is the anchor of Baltimore’s league-best run defense, comes in questionable with an ankle issue.
DE Trey Hendrickson (CIN) vs. T Ronnie Stanley (BAL): Hendrickson’s four-sack effort against Vegas landed him a spot on our Week 9 top-10 list. He’s a highly skilled, high-motor edge defender in the vein of Nick Bosa and Maxx Crosby. The 6-6 Stanley is a mobile mountain and grades out as one of the NFL’s finest pass-blocking left tackles. One way the Ravens will likely try to neutralize Hendrickson is to run right at him, looking for Stanley to clear a path for Henry.
