Thanksgiving: Triple serving of NFL action
John Madden to again be honored as Lions, Cowboys and Packers play hosts.
“There’s no place that I would rather be today on Thanksgiving,” John Madden once rhapsodized during a Thanksgiving FOX NFL broadcast, “than right here, right now, at a football game.”
We at HOFootball know where Madden was coming from, even as we spend Turkey Day navigating around or fending off family members less understanding of the Hall of Fame coach’s sentiment.
This Thursday, three NFL games are on the docket, and all three will start with a flip of the Madden celebration coin — one side showing a six-legged turducken, the other a silhouette of Madden, the patron saint of Thanksgiving Day football.
The pigskin trifecta kicks off with the Bears visiting the juggernaut Lions at Ford Field in Detroit. The second game features the Cowboys entertaining the Giants — we acknowledge that using the word “entertaining” is a bit reckless. The nightcap has Green Bay and Lambeau Field hosting the Miami Dolphins in a key interconference game.
Let’s take a closer look at each of the three matchups before the tryptophan kicks in.
Chicago (4-7) at Detroit (10-1)
Thursday, Nov. 28, 12:30 p.m. ET, Ford Field (Detroit), CBS
The Lions (10-1) notched their fourth double-digit victory in their last five games, and ninth straight win overall, by beating the Colts, 24-6, on Sunday in Indianapolis. The Bears (4-7) have lost five in row and suffered yet another soul-crushing defeat in Week 12, falling to Minnesota after rallying late to send the game into overtime.
MVP candidate Jared Goff leads a Lions offense which showcases a balance that Philippe Petit would envy. Goff posted another terrific game in the win over Indy. The backfield duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery had three rushing touchdowns, the 22nd straight game the Lions have rushed for at least one TD, the second longest such streak in league history. Gibbs (10 rushing TDs) and Montgomery (11) became the first tandem in more than 60 years to post consecutive seasons with 10 or more rushing TDs.
Expect that two-headed running monster to be in full force Thursday. The Bears secondary, anchored by corner Jaylon Johnson, makes Chicago tough to throw on, but the run defense (23rd in the league) is vulnerable. We foresee Detroit OC Ben Johnson going with a ground-heavy game plan throughout.
For Chicago’s offense, rookie QB Caleb Williams is still a work in progress, but he enjoyed his best game in a month in the loss to Minnesota. The No. 1 overall pick threw for 340 yards and two TDs and made some big-time throws in the clutch. (Both TD passes came in the fourth quarter, including one with 22 seconds remaining to tie the game.) The Lions’ pass defense could be the team’s Achilles heel, especially since the season-ending injury to star DE Aidan Hutchinson — the defense did not sack Anthony Richardson on Sunday. The Detroit D ranks near the bottom in terms of yardage allowed, though some of that is the result of playing prevent defense to protect big leads.
We like Williams to put up some robust stats, but we think Goff will do the same, and for the Lions’ running game to keep on keeping on.
PICK: Lions 33, Chicago 23
Key matchup: CB Jaylon Johnson (CHI) vs. WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET)
New York (2-9) at Dallas (4-7)
Thursday, Nov. 28, 4:30 p.m. ET, AT&T Stadium (Dallas), FOX
The Giants vs. Dallas on Thanksgiving afternoon?
Please, not while the nation is eating.
On Sunday, in Washington, the Cowboys (4-7) snapped a five-game losing, due largely to the late play of their special teams, which scored two touchdowns in the final four minutes of the game. Of course, Washington fans would have you believe that it was their franchise’s special teams that handed the game away.
And they would be right. But, for Dallas, a win is a win, right?
For the Giants (2-9), you would need to sit them down and use simple shapes and primary colors to diagram what an NFL victory looks like — it’s been that long since New York recorded one (for the record, Week 6 against Seattle). The Giants come off a thumping Sunday at home by Tampa Bay, 30-6. Quarterback Tommy DeVito starts his second straight, but the New York offense against the Bucs was just as effective as it had been under Daniel Jones. In other words, not very.
The Bucs sacked DeVito four times. That should be good news for Dallas’ Micah Parsons, who collected two against the Commanders (his 13th career game with multiple sacks). However, the Cowboys are next to last in the NFL at stopping the run, so the Giants’ running game, solid up until the Tampa loss, will be able to move the ball on the ground. We see RB Tyrone Tracy getting a lot to eat on Thanksgiving.
A well-fed Tracy should set up play-action opportunities for DeVito. New York WR Malik Nabers caught six more passes on Sunday, giving him 67 on the year, the most ever by a rookie receiver through nine games. Because of injuries, the Cowboys’ pass defense is average at best, but it held Washington’s Terry McLaurin to four catches for just 16 yards, before his fifth grab almost broke Dallas’ back late in the game. Dallas hopes to see the return of corner Trevon Diggs, who missed the Washington game with a calf injury. Look for Devito and Nabers to target Diggs early, if only to see just how much that calf injury has healed.
Dallas QB Cooper Rush has played commendably since taking over for Dak Prescott, and the OL allowed just one sack against Washington. Rush and Co. go up against a forceful Giants pass rush, anchored by the dominating tackle Dexter Lawrence, that ranks fourth in the league with 36 sacks. Dallas WR CeeDee Lamb has not been able to make plays downfield of late — 10 catches but for just 67 yards on Sunday — and with the pressure New York can put on a QB, it’s unlikely he sees many big-play opportunities on Thursday.
As bad as Dallas has played at AT&T Stadium in 2024 — talk about some turkeys — we’re confident Jerry Jones’ guys record that elusive first home win. From an offensive standpoint, get ready for something truly offensive (as in bad) from both teams. But Dallas ran the ball better against the Commanders, and we think they will build on that success Thursday.
PICK: Dallas 19, New York Giants 15
Key matchup: WR Malik Nabers (NYG) vs. Travon Diggs (DAL)
Key matchup: DT Dexter Lawrence (NYG) vs. Cooper Beebe (DAL)
Miami (4-7) at Green Bay (8-3)
Thursday, Nov. 28, 8:20 p.m. ET, Lambeau Field (Green Bay), NBC
On paper plates, this looks to be the best game of the Thursday action. Yes, the Dolphins (5-6) are below .500, but a healthy Miami offense and an aggressive pass defense has the boys from South Beach poised for a playoff push. The Packers (8-3) need a win to keep pace with Minnesota and Detroit in the top-heavy NFC North.
The Dolphins stomped AFC East foe New England, 34-15, with Tua Tagovailoa tossing four touchdowns, one to Jaylen Waddle, who racked up 144 yards receiving on six catches.
What’s scary about the Miami offense is that Tyreek Hill still has yet to explode. The Cheetah averages just 11.7 yards per catch — by far his worst as a Dolphin — and has reached the end zone just three times. But Hill is a dormant volcano, and when he does go off, he will lift Miami’s attack to another level of potency. Green Bay and its secondary, led by safety Xavier McKinney and an injured Jaire Alexander (listed as questionable), have to hope that eruption does not happen Thanksgiving evening.
The Packers come off a home beatdown of the depleted 49ers. RB Josh Jacobs and the Green Bay running game had their way with the 49ers defense, meaning not much was demanded of Jordan Love and the passing game. Green Bay was uncharacteristically productive in the red zone Sunday, scoring TDs all five times they reached inside the 49ers’ 20-yard line. More will be learned on Thanksgiving — Miami is a top-10 red-zone defense — as to whether the Dolphins have solved their red-zone issues on offense.
Green Bay would love for Thursday’s game to play out the same way as did Sunday: a quick double-digit lead followed by a heavy dose of Jacobs. If the balanced Dolphins’ defense slows down the big back and forces Love into a series of 3rd-and-longs, then advantage Miami. A tantalizing individual matchup in this tilt would be Green Bay wideout Romeo Doubs against Miami’s All-Pro corner Jalen Ramsey, but news out of the Packers is that Doubs may miss the Thursday showdown because of concussion protocol — the short turnaround between Sunday and Thanksgiving biting the Packers in this instance.
The Dolphins are the most dangerous sub-.500 team in the NFL. Since the return of Tua earlier this month, Miami is one of the more complete teams in the league, and Mike McDaniel’s crew will spoil Thanksgiving dinner for the cheeseheads.
PICK: Miami 27, Green Bay 21
Key matchup: WR Tyreek Hill (MIA) vs. CB Keisean Nixon (GB)
Key matchup: CB Jalen Ramsey (MIA) vs. WR Romeo Doubs (GB)