MNF Week 4: Unbeaten Seahawks @ Lions den
Hicks Pick: Detroit hands visiting Seattle its first loss of the season.
Monday Night Football, Sept. 30, 8:15 p.m. Eastern, Ford Field (Detroit), ESPN
It’s true, Bill Parcells once said you are what your record says you are. But it still feels necessary to put a caveat, an asterisk and a disclaimer next to the Seahawks’ 3-0 record. (And, to be truthful, the Big Tuna was nothing without a guy named Belichick by his side, so make what you will of his “insight.”)
Seattle beat a Broncos team with a rookie QB making his first start. It followed up a nice win road win over a middling Patriot team with a commanding victory over a laboring Dolphins squad without its starting QB. Yes, Geno Smith is playing solid football, D.K. Metcalf is as stout as they come, and the Seattle D, ranked No. 2 overall, seems legit enough.
But, really, think about it … Seattle should be 3-0, shouldn’t they?
The Lions shook off a tough Week 2 loss to Tampa Bay by beating Arizona in the desert. Though sporting a 2-1 record, Jared Goff and the Detroit offense are driving with the parking brake on, and TE Sam LaPorta will play but is likely less than 100 percent. If Detroit repeats its remarkably well-balanced Week 3 offensive effort — 186 yards rushing, 187 yards passing — they will force Geno Smith to play error-free football, something he occasionally struggles to do on the road.
A lot of things point to a tough game for Detroit on Sunday. As coach Gruden points out in his accompanying video breakdown, the Seahawks put up a ton of points in their last three meetings. We think that changes this week, and the Aidan Hutchinson-led Lions’ D puts enough of a stranglehold on Smith, Metcalf and Seattle’s running game.
PICK: Lions 24, Seattle 20, but Gruden takes Seahawks. Let’s see what happens.
Key matchups
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) vs. DB Amik Robertson (DET): Our thinking is that the Lions secondary shifts its attention to Metcalf to take the playmaker away from Geno Smith. But Smith-Njigba is no slouch, as evidenced by his 12-catch day against New England. Robertson plays nickel back and will likely get Smith-Njigba. If the Seattle receiver again catches 12 passes, Seattle might score 30. We don’t think he will.
RBs David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) vs. ILBs Tyrel Dodson and Jerome Baker: This is where the game will be decided. Baker comes into this game somewhat hobbled, while Dodson is a comer at the inside ‘backer position and seems to be a great fit for head coach Mike Macdonald’s defense. However, the power-and-speed combo that Montgomery and Gibbs throw at a defense is altogether unique. We give a healthy edge to the Lions here.
