MNF: Mahomes, Chiefs host Baker, Bucs
Home team stays unbeaten; coach Gruden sees KC offense breaking out.
Monday, Nov. 4, 8:15 p.m., Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City), ESPN/ABC
Monday night’s game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Kansas City Chiefs showcases a quarterback matchup that few could have predicted just a few years ago.
Twenty-eighteen, the year that the Cleveland Browns drafted Baker Mayfield No. 1 overall, saw the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes take the NFL by storm in his first season as a starter. After Mayfield and Mahomes met head-to-head in the playoffs in 2020 (won by the Chiefs, 27-22), many visualized a future rivalry between the two signal-callers and their respective teams.
But that rivalry never materialized. Both the Browns and Mayfield’s fortunes soon plummeted, with the quarterback bouncing around the league until he found his footing last season in Tampa Bay, his fourth NFL team.
Mahomes’ trajectory, of course, has been nothing short of legendary. Each week in 2024 seems to register a new career milestone. Against the Raiders in Week 8, he became the fastest QB ever (103 games) to 30,000 passing yards and just the fourth quarterback to have 70 games with two or more TD passes during his first eight NFL seasons.
Despite ticking off one career achievement after another, Mahomes is playing, statistically, his worst football in 2024. For a guy whose career TD-to-INT ratio stands at better than 3-to-1, his eight touchdown passes and nine interceptions raise eyebrows. His 84.9 QB rating is easily the worst of any of his seven seasons.
Yet, in terms of the only stat that matters — games won — a Mahomes-led Chiefs team has never started a season better. As can be guessed, the catalyst of their 7-0 start has been DC Steve Spagnuolo’s defense, which ranks fifth both in yardage and points allowed.
Contrary to Mahomes, Mayfield is enjoying his most productive NFL campaign and leads the NFL with 21 touchdown passes, despite losing Mike Williams and Chris Godwin, his two best receivers. The Bucs’ running game has improved dramatically this year, and running backs Rachaad White and Bucky Irving need to produce their best effort of 2024 to take pressure off Mayfield and the Tampa passing game.
To land the upset, the Bucs also need to turn over Mahomes, and, as noted above, the reigning Super Bowl MVP has been obliging in that area this season. While 2018 Mahomes is unlikely to put in an appearance Monday night, you can expect him to put up a solid performance against a Tampa pass defense that is third worst in the league. The Chiefs will also want to keep Mayfield on the sidelines, so look for a resurgent Kareem Hunt to get 20 or more carries and 80-plus yards.
On the other side, we do not see the Bucs rushing the ball against Chris Jones and KC’s second-ranked run defense. And, as coach Gruden notes in his video breakdown, the Chiefs secondary, led by All-Pro corner Trent McDuffie, plays tenacious press coverage on the outside. More than perhaps any other week during this season, Mayfield will feel the absence of Williams and Godwin.
PICK: Kansas City 23, Tampa Bay 17
Key matchups
RB Bucky Irving and (TB) vs. LB Nick Bolton (KC): A weakness last year, the Bucs’ running game has helped offset the brutal injury situation Tampa’s passing game finds itself in. Irving has been particularly effective, averaging 5.2 yards and showing himself to be an outstanding receiver out of the backfield. Bolton is a versatile linebacker who displays terrific instincts in filling running lanes, and he’s a terrific tackler. Where this matchup could really get interesting is in coverage; we do not see Irving being able to run the ball against Bolton and the KC run defense, but the running back should get a few chances to make plays as a receiver. The advantage goes to Bolton in this head-to-head.
S Antoine Winfield (TB) vs. TE Travis Kelce (KC): As does Mahomes, the veteran TE Kelce keeps climbing the career ladder among NFL tight ends. His 10 catches against Vegas last week marked his 11th game with double-digit catches (tied for second most ever), and his one TD grab was his 75th, which is fifth all time. Monday night should be yet another demonstration of the tight end’s one-of-a-kind chemistry with Mahomes. Winfield has been bothered by a foot issue and is officially listed as questionable, but is expected to start. While we do not foresee the talented safety shutting down Kelce, he is the kind of ball-hawking DB who could take advantage of Mahomes’ new-found generosity towards defenses.
