Manning stumbles, CFB goes on
Check our ratings: Still seven QBs with first-round potential.
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How soon they forget.
Last year at this time, college football fans were all atwitter over the ascent of a hot college quarterback to the No. 1 spot, both in terms of draft stock and making a run at the Heisman Trophy.
He was one of the “Big Three” quarterbacks — at the time.
He just signed a few significant NIL deals, including one with a private jet company, was driving around in a Lamborghini, and would soon be dating a popular influencer whose looks might, well, make you forget the private jet.
This quarterback was taking care of business on the field, throwing for 15 touchdowns and 1,818 yards in six games, including five scores and 439 yards against the Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa.
But eventually it began to unravel. It was like the narrative of a country song — he lost the truck, the girl and the spotlight, one verse at a time.
However, of that Big Three a year ago, this quarterback — Carson Beck, formerly of Georgia — is still standing. The other two, Shedeur Sanders and Quinn Ewers, took an ignominious slide in the 2025 draft, Sanders to the fifth round and Ewers to the seventh.
Beck, whose draft stock plummeted after he tore the UCL in his throwing elbow in last season’s SEC Championship Game, opted out of the draft. He transferred to Miami, thereby earning up to ~$6 million in NIL pay and a chance to rehab his injury and draft stock.
(FWIW, Beck and the girlfriend, Hanna Cavinder — half of the famous Cavinder Twins/basketball players/influencers — broke up this spring.)
And now he is once again listed as a potential first-round pick, it says here, after leading Miami to a 27-24 upset win over Notre Dame, capping it with a fourth-quarter game-winning drive that felt like a direct rebuttal to every doubter from his Georgia exit.
This was his first game since the UCL surgery, and he showed zero hesitation. The ball came out clean, he took a sack without flinching, and he spread completions across seven receivers, hitting 20 of 31 passes (including 12 straight completions) for 205 yards and two touchdowns.
“We had him rated as a first rounder before the injury last year,” said one NFL team general manager. “That drive against Notre Dame? That’s what you want to see. He didn’t just manage the moment — he owned it.”
Manning hype unfulfilled
In a similar manner from the opposite perspective, Arch Manning owned his performance in a 14-7 loss at Ohio State: 17 of 30 for 170 yards, one TD, one interception, along with 10 carries for 38 yards.
That hardly lived up to the hype that ranked him the No. 1-draft and Heisman candidate. Hard to know what was realistic to expect of him going against a No. 3-ranked team, at The Shoe and against NFL-tested defensive coordinator Matt Patricia.
“For the most part, just, I got to play better for us to win … You don’t like losing, especially opening week, going 0-1,” Manning said. “But you know the sun comes up, and it’s time to attack.”
Rating Arch is a complex challenge, not only because we have seen so little of him, but there also seems to be confusion within the Manning clan if he will enter the draft or return to Texas.
Some who rated him in the top three before the season opener took Manning off their boards entirely after the game. Unless I get more input, I cannot remove him just because he didn’t live up to unrealistic expectations in one game against what is now the top-ranked team in college football.
Yes, he looked bad at times, but I’ve watched him since high school, and I also covered his grandfather and uncles in college and the NFL. Despite the bad opener, Arch absolutely looks like the most athletic Manning since Archie. Let’s let this play out.
A cornucopia of collegiate QBs?
Meanwhile, there seem to be plenty of quarterbacks to go around, with or without Arch. Really? That’s the word from usually very conservative professionals.
“I have never seen so many young, draft-eligible quarterbacks with first-day draft potential,” a former NFC general manager told me. “The last few years teams have been reaching to get quarterbacks, but it really looks like supply will meet demand this time. Well, almost.”
Five current or former team executives or head coaches named a combined seven quarterbacks who seem to have first-round potential. They all caution that we have a ways to go, a lot of games to play, but, having said all that, here are the seven quarterbacks they named, pretty much in order:
LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina
Garrett Nussmeier, LSU
Arch Manning, Texas
Sam Leavitt, Arizona State
Drew Allar, Penn State
Carson Beck, Miami
Cade Klubnik, Clemson
Two others with first-round potential are Oklahoma’s John Mateer and Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza.
Current quarterback prospects for 2026 Draft
There are no guarantees as to which underclassmen may enter the draft. For now, we rate 19 draft-worthy quarterbacks, nine of whom find themselves in the top 100.
Check here for NFL Draft Scout’s updated top 650.
In 1983, a record six quarterbacks were drafted in the first round. Three are in the Pro Football Hall of Fame: John Elway (No. 1, Indianapolis; traded to Denver), Jim Kelly (No. 14, Buffalo) and Dan Marino (No. 27, Miami). The others — Todd Blackledge (No. 7, Kansas City), Tony Eason (No. 15, New England) and Ken O’Brien (No. 24, N.Y. Jets) — not so much.
That record was tied in 2024 in shocking style. Six went off the board in 12 picks during a first round that saw the first 14 players selected come from the offensive side of the ball (another record).
The quarterbacks were Caleb Williams, (No. 1, Chicago), Jayden Daniels (No. 2, Washington), Drake Maye (No. 3, New England), Michael Penix Jr. (No. 8, Atlanta), J.J. McCarthy (No. 10, Minnesota) and Bo Nix (No. 12, Denver).
Daniels was outstanding as a rookie, Nix was excellent, Penix and Maye showed promise, McCarthy was sidelined with an injury and Williams struggled.
Only two quarterbacks were taken in the first round this year: Miami’s Cam Ward No. 1 to Tennessee and Mississippi’s Jaxson Dart to the New York Giants. As noted earlier, Colorado’s Sanders and Texas’ Ewers slid to the later rounds. Ward is already a starter and Dart is commanding attention in New York, moving past Jameis Winston on the depth chart to back up Russell Wilson.
For numerous reasons, mostly because pro offenses are looking more and more like college offenses, teams are more willing to play first-year quarterbacks. They are also more willing to move on from previous first-round quarterbacks.
This year alone, 13 former first-round quarterbacks changed teams. Those 13 quarterbacks have already been with a total of 36 teams.
First-round quarterbacks who changed teams in 2025
