Caleb Williams: Victim of lofty expectations
Few people heeded the red flags at USC
First, I wish the best for Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams, whose struggles after only two games have become cause célèbre for the former USC sensation. Too many fans and media believed he would almost immediately transform the franchise into a power.
To be clear, Williams has become the victim here, a conspicuous example of my favorite saying: Disappointment is the difference between expectations and results. Expectations for the No. 1 overall pick were so high in Chicago that his chance to meet or even come close to those lofty projections was nil, and we aren’t referencing college pay.
We watched, listened and cringed through training camp as he was deified to the point of ridiculousness, becoming a Chicago cult hero before taking a snap. Now, after two rough games, some look at him from a more realistic perspective. Others laughably criticize him for not living up to their expectations. Nice.
This is the convenient time for me to say “I told you so” because, well, I did. And it wasn’t couched in some vague language. It was very Frank.
Just as we warned a year earlier that C. J. Stroud was superior to that draft’s darling, Bryce Young, we took pains to point out the specific red flags of Williams’ play, which have resurfaced in his two NFL starts.
In Sunday’s 19-13 loss to the Houston Texans, Williams completed 23 of 37 passes for 174 yards and no touchdowns. He threw two interceptions, was sacked seven times, and under pressure on 11 other dropbacks. It was not pretty to watch.
According to NFL Next Gen Stats, the Texans defense blitzed Williams on 42 percent of his dropbacks (20 times), its highest blitz rate in a game under DeMeco Ryans. The Texans generated 12 pressures and five sacks when blitzing, with nine defenders finishing with multiple pressures.
When facing the blitz, Caleb Williams completed only three of 12 attempts for 15 yards and an interception and took five of his seven sacks. When not blitzed, Williams completed 20 of 25 passes for 159 yards and threw an interception.
It’s as if Ryans read NFL Draft Scout’s pre-draft profile on Williams before devising a plan of attack.
Per NFL Draft Scout pre-draft profile:
Overview update 4-10-24:
Caleb Williams is the overwhelming people's choice to be the No.1 overall pick in the 2024 draft. We understand that, but we do not agree that he projects as the best or even safest, short and long-term quarterback in this draft. His 2023 season was littered with red flags that opened the door for further consideration on several levels …
Williams' weaknesses are hidden, or overlooked, because of his penchant for off-script heroics … Despite raves to the contrary, Williams' pell-mell style often faltered against pressure as demonstrated in data by Mike Tanier’s Too Deep Zone :
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Per Tanier: One of Williams’ most obvious strengths is his ability to keep plays alive, escape danger and make big throws under duress. Therefore, it’s shocking to see him produce some of the worst figures under pressure among the top prospects.
Passing Under Pressure, 2023
Bo Nix: 43-of-67 (64.2%), 603 yards, 9 TD, 1 INT, 6 sacks, 9.7 ANY/A
Jayden Daniels: 27-of-54 (50.0%), 524 yards, 7 TD, 0 INT, 22 sacks, 7.5 ANY/A
J.J. McCarthy: 54-of-79 (68.4%), 799 yards, 7 TD, 3 INT, 19 sacks, 6.6 ANY/A
Michael Penix: 64-of-147 (43.5%), 1,033 yards, 6 TD, 4 INT, 12 sacks, 5.5 ANY/A
Jordan Travis: 37-of-75 (49.3%), 601 yards, 4 TD, 2 INT, 14 sacks, 5.3 ANY/A
Drake Maye: 42-of-99 (43.4%), 750 yards, 8 TD, 3 INT, 29 sacks, 5.1 ANY/A
Caleb Williams: 47-of-105 (44.8%), 738 yards, 9 TD, 4 INT, 33 sacks, 3.5 ANY/A
Spencer Rattler: 62-of-117 (53.0%), 884 yards, 5 TD, 4 INT, 42 sacks, 3.2 ANY/A
Nix played in an offense full of micro-passes, giving him lots of ways to avoid pressure. That said, a 64.2% completion rate under such circumstances is impressive. Daniels had an obvious Plan B when pressured, which kept his raw totals low.
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Williams showed a tendency to resort to fancy footwork while looking to escape and make a big play. He held on to the ball for an average of 4.6 seconds rather than settling for a short dump-off or throwing the ball away to avoid a big loss. Living to play another play, a necessary instinct for long term success in the NFL, is not one of Williams' traits …
Williams has a tendency to hold the ball loosely and away from his body, exposing him to potential strip sacks. He must stop playing hero ball and learn to play within the structure of an NFL offense. Can he overcome all these negatives? Probably, but some of those negatives are hard-wired and will take time to fix. And patience isn't an obvious virtue by NFL teams. Just ask Justin Fields, banished to Pittsburgh after three years in Chicago. Hear that, Caleb?
Go to NFL Draft Scout for a complete pre-draft scouting report on Williams.
All that was published well before the 2024 draft, so we did indeed tell you so. But we do hope for the best for the young QB. If Williams becomes a star, he can add his name to an impressive list of NFL greats who stumbled out of the gate. They were presented in this countdown order in an NFL.com feature last year.
10. Jared Goff
Rookie season (2016): 5 TD, 7 INT, 54.6 completion percentage, 0-7 record as a starter
Career: Three-time Pro Bowler, 2018 NFC champion
Goff was winless (0-7) in his seven starts as a rookie, but quickly found success after that. The following two seasons, Goff was named to two Pro Bowls, went 26-9 as the Rams' starter and led Los Angeles to the Super Bowl. Goff has enjoyed even more success in Detroit; he was named to his third Pro Bowl in 2022 and last year helped the Lions to get to within a game of the franchise's first Super Bowl.
9. Josh Allen
Rookie season (2018): 10 TD, 12 INT, 52.8 completion percentage, 5-6 record as a starter
Career: Two-time Pro Bowler, 68-35 record as a starter
Allen overcame a rocky rookie season to become one of the NFL's top quarterbacks. In 2020, after he leaned on John Brown and Cole Beasley during his turnaround 2019 season, Allen's game took off when the Bills acquired Stefon Diggs from Minnesota. During his four seasons with Diggs, Allen averaged 34.3 touchdown passes a season while continuing to serve as one of the league's most feared running quarterbacks. Allen will look to continue having success without Diggs, who is now on the Texans.
8. Jim Plunkett
Rookie season (1971): 19 TD, 16 INT, 48.2 completion percentage, 3-11 record as a starter
Career: Two-time Super Bowl champion, Super Bowl MVP, 1980 Comeback Player of the Year
Plunkett's rookie season wasn't that bad. But his second year was even worse, with 25 interceptions and a 3-11 record as the Patriots' starter. The next several seasons followed suit, with Plunkett tossing a league-high 22 picks in 1974.
It looked like Plunkett was doomed to be remembered as a bust before an injury thrust him into the Raiders' starting lineup in 1980. He then led the Raiders on an unexpected run that culminated in Oakland becoming the first wild card team to win the Super Bowl. Plunkett won a second ring as the Raiders' starting quarterback three years later.
7. Eli Manning
Rookie season (2004): 6 TD, 9 INT, 48.2 completion percentage, 1-6 record as a starter
Career: Four-time Pro Bowler, two-time Super Bowl champion, two-time Super Bowl MVP
Manning went 1-6 as a rookie after taking over for future Hall of Famer Kurt Warner. While he largely struggled that season, Manning offered a foreshadowing of things to come against fellow rookie Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers, throwing two touchdowns and completing nearly 70 percent of his passes in a 33-30 defeat.
Manning overcame his slow start to spend 14 seasons as the Giants' full-time starting quarterback. While his Super Bowl exploits are well known, an underrated aspect of Manning's career is his durability. His 222 consecutive starts is the third-most of any player in NFL history.
6. Dan Fouts
Rookie season (1973): 6 TD, 13 INT, 44.8 completion percentage, 0-5-1 record as a starter
Career: Six-time Pro Bowler, four-time league passing champion, 1982 AP Offensive Player of the Year
Fouts' forgettable rookie season has largely been, well, forgotten. While Peyton Manning has gotten a ton of flack for his rookie season (including a still-standing rookie record 28 picks), Fouts' struggles as a rookie have largely flown under the radar. Until now, that is.
Along with throwing more than twice as many picks than touchdown passes, Fouts went 0-5-1 as the Chargers' starting quarterback as a rookie. Fouts continued to struggle until his sixth season, when the Chargers hired future Hall of Fame coach Don Coryell. Fouts and Coryell went on to enjoy one of the most successful QB/coach partnerships in league history, as Fouts quickly mastered the "Air Coryell" offense while revolutionizing the passing game. A Super Bowl was the only thing missing during their memorable run together.
5. Steve Young
Rookie season (1985): 3 TD, 8 INT, 52.2 completion percentage, 1-4 record as a starter
Career: Seven-time Pro Bowler, two-time league MVP, Super Bowl MVP
Young actually fared well during his two years as the Los Angeles Express' starting quarterback in the USFL. He was set up for failure in Tampa, however, as Young found himself scrambling for his life on seemingly every play. Young was able to get himself traded to San Francisco, where he spent half a decade as Joe Montana's backup before taking the league by storm for most of the '90s. He reached the summit in 1994, when he won league and Super Bowl MVP honors while also setting a Super Bowl record for touchdown passes (six).
4. Brett Favre
Rookie season (1991): 0 TD, 2 INT, 0.0 completion percentage, zero games started
Career: 11-time Pro Bowler, three-time league MVP, Super Bowl champion
Quarterbacks who largely spent their rookie seasons as backups weren't considered for this list. Favre, however, was the exception, given how bad he played during his limited action as a rookie. His first career attempt was a touchdown pass ... to the other team. Favre later threw another pick without completing any of his four pass attempts.
That offseason, Favre received a career-altering life raft from then-Packers GM Ron Wolf, who thought that the young, gunslinging quarterback had untapped potential. Over the course of the next 19 years, Favre ultimately proved Wolf correct. He retired at the end of the 2010 atop the career record board in passing yards and touchdown passes. (Favre is also the most intercepted quarterback of all time.) His streak of 297 consecutive games played will likely never be broken.
3. John Elway
Rookie season (1983): 7 TD, 14 INT, 47.5 completion percentage, 4-6 record as a starter
Career: Nine-time Pro Bowler, two-time Super Bowl champion, Super Bowl MVP, 1987 NFL MVP
While Dan Marino enjoyed immediate success, his fellow rookie classmate, Elway, initially struggled before quickly finding his way. In his second season, Elway led the Broncos to a 13-3 record. Two years after that, Elway led one of the greatest drives in NFL history that resulted in a trip to the Super Bowl. Elway capped off his career more than a decade later as Super Bowl MVP, after the Broncos finally complemented his talent with an equally talented roster.
2. Troy Aikman
Rookie season (1989): 9 TD, 18 INT, 52.9 completion percentage, 0-11 record as starter
Career: Six-time Pro Bowler, three-time Super Bowl champion, Super Bowl MVP
The irony here is that Aikman became the first quarterback to win 90 games over the course of a decade after going 0-11 as the Cowboys' starter during his rookie season. Aikman clearly got better, but coach Jimmy Johnson's quick reconstruction of Dallas' roster put Aikman in position to carve out a Hall of Fame career. He responded by playing at an elite level during the '90s while setting the Super Bowl career record for completion percentage.
1. Terry Bradshaw
Rookie season (1970): 6 TD, 24 INT, 38.1 completion percentage, 3-5 record as a starter
Career: Four-time Super Bowl champion, two-time Super Bowl MVP, 1978 NFL MVP
He's not the best quarterback on this list, but considering how bad his rookie season was and how the rest of his career played out, Bradshaw comes out on top.
While he never got rid of his penchant for throwing picks, Bradshaw largely overcame his flaws while leading the Steelers to a record four Super Bowl wins over a six-year span. He played brilliantly in each of Pittsburgh's Super Bowl wins, which was a big reason why he was a first-ballot Hall of Fame inductee.
Based on this, Williams’ career isn’t over after only two games. But it won’t be easy to succeed enough to break into that top 10. It will take time, persistence, health and a fan base and media that don’t kill off his hope with unrealistic expectations.