Analysis: Ravens/Lamar vs. Bills/Allen
Also in Sunday Divisionals: Hot Rams visit Eagles in cold Philadelphia
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Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles , 3:00 p.m. ET, Lincoln Financial Field, NBC
Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills, 6:30 p.m. ET, Rich Stadium (Buffalo, NY), CBS
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For Sunday’s doubleheader of Divisional Round games, the term “moving the chains” might apply to improving tire traction as much as it does picking up first downs.
The game between the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills and the matchup later Sunday between the Los Angeles Rams and Philadelphia Eagles feature teams that had double-digit victories last week playing games this Sunday in single-digit conditions.
In the Wild Card Round, the Ravens pounded division-rival Pittsburgh, 28-14, while Buffalo dominated Denver, 31-7. In the NFC, the Eagles shut down Green Bay, 22-10, and the Rams did likewise to the Minnesota Vikings, 27-9.
Both contests Sunday feature rematches of lopsided games from earlier in the season. In Week 4, the Ravens handed Buffalo its first loss of the season, blasting the Bills 35-10 at M&T Bank Stadium. On Thankgsiving weekend, the Eagles dominated the Rams in L.A., 37-20.
The winning teams of these two earlier meetings rode monster performances from their respective star running backs. Baltimore’s Derick hammered the Bills defense for 199 yards and two touchdowns. Philadelphia’s Saquon Barkley ran for a career-best 255 against L.A., including TD runs of 70 and 72 yards.
For the Ravens-Bills tilt, a lot of ink is being spilled about Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, two of the most dynamic quarterbacks ever to hook up in a playoff game. The Rams-Eagles game doesn’t feature an individual matchup worthy of such hype, but both teams have enough stars, and many with recent postseason success, to leave an imprint.
The weather might mark both games, as well. The forecast for Buffalo is single-digit temperatures with a chance of snow. It should be slightly warmer in Philadelphia, but snow is, as of this writing, even likelier. In both instances, the passing games for all four teams could be hampered. So could be the kicking games.
Here, we take a look more closely at two matchups that seem to promise an antidote to the hangover from Wild Card Weekend.
Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, Jan. 19, 3:00 p.m. ET, Lincoln Financial Field, NBC
As when considering the Rams-Vikings from a week ago, do not let the differences in regular season records fool you. And don’t let the dominant Philadelphia road win over Los Angeles in late November distract you either.
The Rams are healthy, hot and have enough postseason experience to threaten the Eagles on Sunday.
That threat starts with quarterback Matthew Stafford, who seems to be calling back to his 2021 playoff run that saw the Rams win Super Bowl LVI. However, the Rams recent success has as much to do with the rapid improvement of their young defense, which shackled Sam Darnold, Justin Jefferson and the explosive Minnesota passing game last Monday.
The Rams allowed 130 yards rushing per game this season, which should not bode well going against a well-rested Saquon Barkley. But that area of the L.A. defense, just as its pass defense, improved over the second half of the season. One reason has been the stellar run support from safety Quentin Lake, who was in on nine tackles versus the Vikings. Expect him and Barkley to have a few meetings in running lanes or in the open field.
Barkley gets much of the pub, and rightfully so — the MVP candidate picked up against Green Bay where he left off the regular season, rushing for 119 yards — but the Lane Johnson-led offensive line is one of the best running-blocking units in football, and typically imposes its physicality as the game goes on.
It’s a bit of a different story with the Eagles’ pass protection, which allowed 43 sacks on the season. But some will point to quarterback Jalen Hurts’ tendency to hold on to the ball too long as a cause — a relevant criticism for this game since a few of the Rams’ sacks on Monday night resulted from Darnold eating the ball on one dropback after another.
The aforementioned Johnson is an elite pass blocker. His matchup with Rams end Braden Fiske, who recorded three sacks over the past two games, will be big, as will Eagles left tackle Jordan Mailata, Pro Football Focus’ top-ranked tackle, going against L.A.’s Kobie Turner, an up-and-coming star who recorded two of those nine sacks of Darnold.
Hurts is behind maybe only Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen as the NFL’s most productive dual-threat QB. The Rams must be wary of him both on designed runs and leaving the pocket when his receivers are covered. Another focal point will be the improving Rams secondary dealing with Philadelphia’s trio of A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and tight end Dallas Goedert. Brown and his one catch were nonfactors against the Packers. The big wideout missed practice Wednesday, but the reports are that he will be ready for Sunday.
Fangio vs. McVay
The line battle on the other side of the ball might be even more decisive. Like the Eagles offense, Philadelphia DC Vic Fangio’s group is menacing up front. All-Pro defensive tackle Jalen Carter demands double teams and, along with fellow ex-Georgia Bulldog Jordan Davis, is effective at collapsing the pocket. Carter posted 12 tackles for loss this season. In the first meeting between these two teams, Eagles DT Milton Williams had two sacks.
The Eagles’ defense finished No. 1 overall and in defending the pass. That same front seven, which also features Pro Bowl linebacker Zack Baun, is not quite as stout at stopping the run — and this is where the Rams can gain a big advantage. Establishing a ground game with Kyren Williams will keep Stafford out of third-and-longs and set up play-action.
In recent games, the veteran QB has spread the ball around, but his once favorite target, Cooper Kupp, has managed just five catches total in the last four games. Can the wideout churn out a vintage Kupp performance Sunday? Will Puka Nacua, Kupp’s understudy no longer, have a breakout playoff performance?
That duo’s matchup against Philly DBs Darius Slay and rookies Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean might be viewed as a proxy confrontation between Fangio, one of the more revered coordinators in the league, and Rams head coach Sean McVay, a master of creating mismatches for his playmakers on offense. But, even more than Fangio’s game planning, the weather might put the L.A. passing game in a deep freeze.
This game may come down to special teams. The Eagles’ ST unit set the tone on the opening kickoff against the Pack, forcing a fumble which Hurts and offense cashed in for an early 7-0 lead. Philly placekicker Jake Elliot brings a 19-for-19 postseason mark on field goals to the proceedings, while rookie Joshua Karty has no postseason experience on which to fall back. Could that be a factor in the cold, hostile road environment that will greet him in Philadelphia?
We say the Rams’ run ends in City of Less than Brotherly Love. McVay’s game plan might give L.A. an early advantage, but we expect Barkley and the Eagles’ offensive line to control the clock and keep Stafford and his mates grinding their teeth on the sidelines.
PICK: Philadelphia 30, Los Angeles 21
Key matchup: WR Cooper Kupp (LAR) vs. CB Cooper DeJean (PHI)
Key matchup: S Quentin Lake (LAR) vs. RB Saquon Barkley (PHI)
Key matchup: T Alaric Jackson (LAR) vs. DT/DE Jalen Carter (PHI)
Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills
Sunday, Jan. 19, 6:30 p.m. ET, Rich Stadium (Buffalo, NY), CBS
The premier matchup of the Divisional Round features the two leading candidates for league MVP, who will lead powerhouse offenses against what are oftentimes obliging defenses. If the weather is accommodating, this may be a shootout rivaling the Bills-Chiefs epic from three years ago.
Baltimore is led by two-time NFL MVP Lamar Jackson, who perhaps had the most efficient performance of his playoff career in the Ravens’ 28-14 Wild Card Round win over Pittsburgh. Jackson completed 16 of 21 passes for 175 yards and two touchdowns.
Jackson also rushed for 82 yards against the Steelers, but that took a back seat to Derrick Henry’s 186-yard night. In Week 4, Henry and the Ravens smashed through the Bills defense for 271 yards rushing as a team, and if conditions Sunday make putting the ball in the air hazardous, then Henry’s brutal home-and-auto workouts could pay dividends.
If, weather permitting, Baltimore can throw, then Jackson’s dual-threat prowess comes into play. The Bills harassed Denver’s Bo Nix last week, but for the season ranked near the bottom in defending the pass. As with the Bills’ offensive line, which allowed a league fewest 14 sacks, the Ravens’ pass protection is solid, and Jackson’s threat as a runner can take the edge of the meanest of pass rushes. Buffalo edge rushers Greg Rousseau, A.J. Epenesa and future Hall of Famer Von Miller need to strike that balance between making Jackson feel their presence but also maintaining their rush lanes.
We probably sound like a scratched record on the topic of red-zone performance, but it will really factor in who wins this game. The Ravens are darn near automatic when they arrive inside the opponent’s 20. They scored on a whopping 74 percent of their trips during the regular season and manage to bump that up to 75 percent (three TDs in four chances) against Pittsburgh.
Tight end Mark Andrews is skilled at using leverage and finding cracks in a red-zone defense. He’s Jackson’s most reliable target down close, and we like the veteran tight end to make an impact Sunday. Another key matchup is Baltimore’s second-year star Zay Flowers and Buffalo’s Pro Bowl corner Christian Benford. If Jackson gets a clean pocket to throw from, then Flowers will test the deep areas of the Buffalo defense.
Going back and forth between Jackson and Allen stands to be nonstop fun for viewers. The Bills became the first team in NFL history to record at least 30 rushing TDs and 30 passing TDs in the same season.
By now, everyone knows that everything runs through Allen. In the 31-7 Wild Card rout of Denver, Allen passed for 272 yards and ran for another 46. The stress he puts on a defense as a runner and passer is matched only by the QB on the other sideline this Sunday.
Running back James Cook had a number of punishing, tone-setting runs on his way to 120 yards rushing. But he and the Buffalo running game face a stiffer challenge Sunday. The Ravens were a convincing NFL best in defending the run. Part of that had to do with playing with big leads; another is that opposing offenses, for most of 2024, faced less resistance from Baltimore’s pass defense. But the most important reason is that Baltimore’s front seven is really tough to run against, thanks to the presence of nose tackle Travis Jones and Pro Bowlers Nnamdi Madubuike and Roquan Smith.
Madubuike collected two sacks against Russell Wilson last week. Keep an eye on his head-to-head with Buffalo tackle Spencer Brown. The Bills usually provide Allen with superb pass protection, and Allen is so difficult to corral and bring down.
This game may expose some truths about the Bills’ passing game and Baltimore’s pass defense. Is Buffalo’s receiving corps, one with no 1,000-yard member, a group that can help Allen lift the team to the Super Bowl? Is this the game wideout Amari Cooper finally justifies the excitement that accompanied his midseason acquisition?
Meanwhile, Baltimore’s pass defense, a big disappointment for most of the regular season, has played better in recent games. Has Kyle Hamilton, Marlon Humphrey and the Ravens secondary really made their way back to what was, just a year ago, one of the league’s more stifling secondaries?
In years past, when considering the special teams matchup, the advantage would almost certainly go to Baltimore. But future HOF kicker Justin Tucker had, for him, a surprisingly ragged season (22-of-30 on field goals). Aside from the 2020 playoffs (where he went 3-of-6 on field goals), the strong-legged veteran is pretty much money when it counts.
Bills fans, of course, remember Tyler Bass doing his best Scott Norwood impersonation, when he pushed a game-tying 44-yard field goal wide right in the Divisional Round loss last January to eventual champion Kansas City.
In a game likely to hinge on just a few key plays, having a reliable kicker in the clutch has to give Baltimore fans some comfort. We know that it does so for us, and that’s why we like the Ravens in a close, high-scoring game (again, weather permitting). And we predict Jackson, Allen and Henry will put up numbers worthy of their superstar profiles.
PICK: Baltimore 33, Buffalo 30
Key matchup: DE Nnamdi Madubuike (BAL) vs. T Spencer Brown (BUF)
Key matchup: WR Zay Flowers (BAL) vs. CB Christian Benford (BUF)
Key matchup: T Ronnie Stanley (BAL) vs. DE Greg Rousseau (BUF)
