AFC East: Early O/U Win Total Predictions
Part 6 of 9: Goodwin and Bissett provide insights on the AFC East
— “NFL Draft Scout is for REAL football lovers—thorough, unbiased facts,” Super Bowl Champion Coach Jon Gruden.
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The Buffalo Bills—behind the pairing of Josh Allen and Sean McDermott—have morphed into the new Belichick-and-Brady axis of the AFC East, stacking up five straight division titles and still chasing the one thing that’s eluded them: a postseason win over Patrick Mahomes and a crack at the Lombardi. Meanwhile, Miami is a far cry from the buttoned-up Shula era; Mike McDaniel’s frat-boy energy is matched only by the Dolphins’ unpredictability on the field. If you’re looking for consistency, you won’t find it in South Beach these days.
Then there are the Patriots and Jets, two franchises leaning hard into nostalgia and reinvention. New England is hoping that familiar faces—Mike Vrabel steering the ship, and Josh McDaniels taking his third crack at reviving the offense—can turn second-year QB Drake Maye into something resembling vintage Brady. The Jets? Well, if Fireman Ed’s got water left in his hose, he might need it. They’re rolling the dice on a Justin Fields reclamation project at quarterback and have brought back former player Aaron Glenn to restore some pride on the sideline. At times, it feels less like a real NFL franchise than a fever dream from a Madden franchise mode, but when have the Jets ever done things the easy way?
This year, the Vegas win totals spell out the uncertainty: nobody can quite pin down what’s about to unfold in this division. The Bills are still chasing a Super Bowl breakthrough. The Dolphins are trying to shake off a playoff drought that’s starting to feel like a curse. New England’s searching for a spark after the Belichick era, and the Jets are—well, the Jets. In this article, Mike Goodwin tackles the Patriots and Jets—two teams trying to rebuild from the wreckage—while Jeremy Bissett breaks down the Bills and Dolphins, where the stakes and the pressure feel even higher. Four teams, four very different stories, and a whole lot of “what ifs.” Let’s break down the AFC East, one over/under at a time.
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Snapshot of the O/U Lines for the AFC East:
Team Schedules for AFC East:
New York Jets:
2024 Record: 4-13
Vegas Line: 5.5
Home Games: PIT, BUF, DAL, DEN, CAR, CLE, ATL, MIA, NE
Away Games: TB, MIA, CIN, NE, BAL, JAX, NO, BUF
After a 2023 season that fell apart minutes into their first offensive drive, the 2024 Jets seemed poised to finally meet last year’s high expectations, with Hall of Famers Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams spearheading the offense and supposed defensive mastermind HC Robert Saleh running the other side of the ball.
Instead, the Jets were arguably the most disappointing team of the season, finishing 4-13, ranking 24th in points per game (19.9) and 20th in points allowed (23.8). Saleh was fired in early October, and following the season, Rodgers and soulmate Davante Adams were cut. Owner Woody Johnson, following the leaguewide trend of raiding the Lions’ front office for some kneecap-biting spark, hired Aaron Glenn and Tanner Engstrand as the new head coach and offensive coordinator, respectively.
Well, as they say, there’s nowhere to go but up—unless you just stay right where you are.
So goodbye, old man Rodgers (off to Pittsburgh), and welcome Justin Fields. That’s certainly a change in skill sets for the Jets. I’ll say this about Fields: he’s fun to watch and a great producer for fantasy, but his skill set hasn’t translated into real NFL success. He’s dynamic with the ball in his hands—when it leaves his hand, not so much.
Over the last two years, per Pro Football Reference, he’s averaged just 3.6 completed air yards per pass attempt (NFL average: 4.55). His touchdown percentage last year was 3.1% (league average: ~4.5%). While he protected the ball well—throwing only one interception in six starts—he also averaged just 184 yards and less than a touchdown per game.
But that was Pittsburgh; this is New York. Will this be the year he becomes the best Jets QB since... Mark Sanchez? Chad Pennington? (No shade on Chad, but it’s been a rough run. Stay strong, Jets fans.)
Maybe at some point, but it’s going to be tough with this supporting cast. No one argues that Garrett Wilson is a legitimate talent—posting highlight-reel catches and being one of just 10 players in the Super Bowl era to notch 1,000 yards in each of his first three seasons, despite the lackluster quarterbacks. But to say the talent drops off after that would be a wild understatement.
WR2 on the depth chart is Allen Lazard, who was basically signed as part of the Rodgers package and was actually benched for a stretch last season after leading the league in drop rate. Coming off a 13-catch season, 30-year-old Josh Reynolds is penciled in as WR3. The 2024 third-round draft pick, Malachi Corley, is mostly remembered for fumbling on the 1-yard line during a premature touchdown celebration on his first NFL touch, finishing the year with just three catches for 16 yards. Fourth-round pick and college track star Arian Smith brings deep speed, but with more drops last season than any player in this draft class, there are serious questions there.
Like I said, rough.
The No. 2 pass catcher in the offense might actually be, if not RB Breece Hall, then third-round tight end Mason Taylor. While that makes for a sexy sleeper fantasy pick, it’s not exactly an ideal NFL foundation.
And speaking of Breece Hall, 2024 was a rough season for the highly regarded RB. He had career lows in yards after contact (2.1) and tackles avoided per carry (17.2%), along with career highs in fumbles and drops. Not great stat lines, but having just turned 24 in May, I’d like to think we can write the season off as emblematic of the dysfunctional offensive environment the Jets were in. First-round pick OT Armand Membou should help the rushing attack.
On defense, the Jets always seemed to have talent and big names, but frequently faltered under pressure and were often criticized for their toughness. Aaron Glenn has had a relatively quiet offseason, seemingly content to develop the players in-house. The team signed only one defensive free agent guaranteed to start—DB Brandon Stephens, a replacement for DJ Reed—and didn’t address defense in the draft until the third round, taking CB Azareye’h Thomas.
Glenn says his focus this year is to “establish a brand,” bringing in several players—while not household names—he describes as “tough, violent, physical, aggressive, resilient,” hoping to give the team the identity it’s been lacking.
While that’s something this moribund franchise needs just as desperately as the generationally hapless Lions did in 2021 (when Glenn took over as DC there), on paper, the talent taking the field in Week 1 looks worse than last year’s squad.
And while the vibe may be much improved, I’m not sure how much the result will be.
Goodwin’s Pick: UNDER 5.5 Wins
New England Patriots:
2024 Record: 5-12
Vegas Line: 8.5
Home Games: LV, PIT, CAR, CLE, ATL, NYJ, NYG, BUF, MIA
Away Games: MIA, BUF, NO, TEN, TB, CIN, BAL, NYJ
The Patriots entered the 2024 NFL season widely viewed as one of the least talented teams in the league, and that proved to be the case, ranking just 30th in PPG at 17.0 and 22nd against with 24.5. If it wasn’t for Joe Milton playing out of his mind in Week 18 against a Bills team that was content resting its stars for the playoffs, they would’ve landed the #1 overall pick in the draft. (Can someone explain why a QB-needy team like CLE or PIT didn’t step up and throw a 4th or high 5th-round pick at NE for this guy instead of letting Dallas take him for a 5th? I don’t understand the NFL sometimes.)
The good news is that bottoming out in 2024 was the plan, and New England entered this offseason with the most cap space in the NFL, the 4th most draft capital in the draft, and a shiny new QB in Drake Maye who, despite an abysmal supporting cast, showed a lot of the traits you look for in a rookie QB that will give a franchise confidence to build a roster around him.
Now, before we get into a win/loss outlook for the Patriots, let me say I don’t know if there’s a team in the league with a wider range of outcomes than New England. Vegas projecting a team to go from 4 wins to an 8.5 o/u is a big jump, and this is a team with a ton of unknowns. Anything could happen here. But if I have to take a side (and that is the task I’ve taken on), let’s take the fun side and make a case for it.
After having cut almost all trace of the previous seasons from the roster, this offseason New England continued to clear the slate by firing HC Jerod Mayo along with his offensive and defensive coordinators, and bringing on Patriots legend Mike Vrabel as HC, Terrell Williams as DC, and welcoming Josh McDaniels back to the team for his third stint as OC.
McDaniels has a history of running wildly successful offenses as a coordinator and pretty bad teams as a head coach, so here’s hoping a return to the place where he routinely had the Patriots ranked as a top 10 offense in the past will have similar success for the future. It is worth noting, though, that McDaniels’ non-Patriot teams have never ranked better than 17th on offensive DVOA. I guess the job is a bit rougher when you don’t have a Tom Brady back there.
Let’s start with the guy this whole thing will live and die with, Drake Maye. First, I was not exaggerating about his supporting cast. Averaging out the PFF rankings for team rush, receiving, pass blocking, and rush blocking grades, the Patriots were a solid 32 out of 32 last year. Despite that, Maye was one of only 14 QBs in the Super Bowl era to clear 220 passing yards and 35 rushing yards per game started in a season (min 8 starts). Not bad, kid.
If Maye is going to elevate this year, it will have to start with the wide receivers. This offseason, the Patriots signed WRs Stefon Diggs and Mack Hollis and drafted WR Kyle Williams to bolster an offense that was forced to run the air game through its tight ends a lot of the time. Diggs is a bit of a question, going into his age-32 season and recovering from a torn ACL, but the Patriots hope to have him ready for Week 1, and prior to the injury, he was playing at his typical high level in Houston, on pace for another 100-catch, 1,100-yard season.
At 6’4” and 221 lbs, Mack Hollis is the big-bodied WR the Patriots have been lacking around the goal line, and was a player valued for his excellent blocking skills during his time with the Bills. Third-round pick Kyle Williams projects as a speedy outside receiver and has a very real chance to start opposite Diggs sooner rather than later.
Additionally, New England added the best pass-catching running back this side of Ashton Jeanty in the draft, Ohio State standout TreVeyon Henderson, a talent who not only projects as an elite pass-catching threat but ran for 1,016 yards and 10 TDs on only 144 carries in his last year in college.
These new additions, along with returning WRs Demario Douglas and Kendrick Bourne and last year’s top pass catcher TE Hunter Henry, give Maye an elevation of talent and variety of skill sets he certainly didn’t have last year. Additionally, 4th overall pick Will Campbell at LT will give Maye the blindside protection he was sorely lacking.
The defense will be completely reworked, with a line that features new additions Milton Williams and Khyiris Tonga. The biggest question will be whether DT Christian Barmore can return to his 2023 form after appearing in only four games last season. The addition of stud LOLB Harold Landry from Tennessee will give them a solid pass rusher that was sorely lacking after a league-low 28 sacks in 2024. In the secondary, free agent breakout CB Carlton Davis starting across from budding star Christian Gonzalez provides an upgrade in a secondary that was routinely picked apart last year.
This is a team that has improved at every level. How well that translates on the field or how well that gels remains to be seen, but this team projects to have the second-easiest schedule in the entire league, which certainly doesn’t hurt. Every year there are one or two teams that vault from last place to the playoffs, and I like the Patriots to be one of the teams to do it this year.
Goodwin’s Pick: OVER 8.5 Wins
Buffalo Bills:
2024 Record: 13-4
Vegas Line: 11.5
Home Games: BAL, MIA, NO, NE, KC, TB, CIN, PHI, NYJ
Away Games: NYJ, ATL, CAR, MIA, HOU, PIT, NE, CLE
If you’ve ever been to a Buffalo Bills tailgate, you know the scene: someone’s going through a folding table before kickoff, and everyone’s convinced this is the year the party finally ends in a parade. That’s the thing about the Bills—hope is never in short supply, even if heartbreak has been a bit of a tradition, too.
The 2024 season was vintage Buffalo, with all the wild swings and stubborn optimism you’d expect. Josh Allen, who’s made a habit out of rewriting the franchise record books, kept the Bills in the Super Bowl conversation from wire to wire. He’s racked up 76 career wins and has turned Sundays in Orchard Park into must-see TV. When Stefon Diggs left, everyone wondered where the big plays would come from. The answer: everywhere. Allen spread the ball like a blackjack dealer at Seneca Casino—thirteen different players caught a touchdown (tying an NFL record), and the Bills rattled off eight straight games with 30-plus points. James Cook stepped up as the closest thing to Thurman Thomas since, well, Thurman Thomas—sixteen rushing touchdowns, nearly five yards per carry, and a new contract debate for the front office.
Khalil Shakir became Allen’s safety net, and rookie Keon Coleman put together a rookie season that careened between jaw-dropping grabs and long droughts. Coleman called his first year “trash,” but the flashes were enough to make you believe a breakout is coming. The offensive line finally found its footing, and rookie Ray Davis gave Buffalo a real change-of-pace option in the backfield.
Defensively, 2024 was a mixed bag. Buffalo finished 17th overall—stubborn against the run, stingy in the red zone, but leaky against the pass and too quiet on third downs. The pass rush lagged (21st in sacks), but a league-best +24 turnover margin and sixteen interceptions kept the Bills in striking distance every week. The front office responded by doubling down on youth and talent this offseason: Kentucky corner Maxwell Hairston arrived in the first round, backed by more secondary help (Jordan Hancock, Dorian Strong), and a fresh crop of defensive linemen (Landon Jackson, TJ Sanders, Deone Walker). Free agency brought in big names like Joey Bosa and Shaq Thompson to add some veteran edge.
So what does 2025 look like? The schedule isn’t exactly a vacation. However, they catch a mild break by hosting the elite quarterbacks when Jackson, Hurts, Mahomes, and Burrow all travel to Orchard Park this season. The postseason, of course, is the real test: Allen’s 0-4 against Mahomes when it matters, and the ghosts of January past still linger. But this team is built to keep the window open. The offense is unpredictable, the defense is deeper, and the core remains intact. The over/under win total sits at 11.5—right in the sweet spot for a group that’s grown used to living on the edge.
Here’s the truth: For Bills fans, pain and hope go hand in hand. Every January, there’s another gut punch, another “what if.” But if you focus only on the ending, you miss the story of how Buffalo flipped its script. This version of the Bills is less about leaning on a single superstar and more about spreading the wealth, keeping defenses honest, and giving Allen every weapon he needs. If the defense takes even a small step forward, and Allen keeps dealing like he has, there’s no reason they won’t be playing deep into January—again.
This may be the year the table breaks the other way. For Bills Mafia, that’s more than just a rallying cry—it’s a promise that one of these seasons, the ending will match the party. And if you’re betting the over, well, you’re in good company.
Bissett’s Prediction: OVER 11.5 Wins.
Miami Dolphins:
2024 Record: 8-9
Vegas Line: 8.5
Home Games: NE, NYJ, LAC, BAL, BUF, WAS, NO, CIN, TB
Away Games: IND, BUF, CAR, CLE, ATL, NYJ, PIT, NE
Let’s talk about the Miami Dolphins and that infamous 24-year playoff win drought. If you’re a fan, you’ve probably heard it all before: the last postseason victory was in 2000, and since then, it’s been five quick exits and a whole lot of heartbreak. That cloud of frustration isn’t going anywhere until Miami finally punches through. And let’s be honest, 2025 feels like a make-or-break year for Mike McDaniel. He’s got the creative chops, but the seat’s getting warm, and the leash is short.
So, what’s the vibe for this year? Honestly, the Dolphins have one of the widest ranges of outcomes in the league. If things start ugly, this thing could go off a cliff fast. But if Tua stays upright and the new pieces on the offensive line click, there’s still enough firepower to make noise in the AFC. The ceiling is playoff contention; the floor is another ugly, wasted season and maybe a new head coach in 2026.
Last year was a gut punch. Miami went from lighting up scoreboards in 2023 to limping through games in 2024. The offensive line was a MASH unit—Terron Armstead finally retired, knees shot, and Robert Hunt and Connor Williams were in and out of the lineup. The running game cratered, basically living in the backfield for all the wrong reasons. Tua missed six games, and even when he played, he wasn’t the same. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle both took steps back—Hill couldn’t shake a wrist injury and off-field stuff, while Waddle had a career-worst year. Suddenly, the offense everyone feared looked pretty regular.
This year, the O-line is a total reboot. Second-year tackle Patrick Paul gets the left side, and while his pass-blocking is promising, he’s still learning how to move bodies in the run game. They brought in James Daniels at guard—he’s a mauler in the run game, and that’s desperately needed. Aaron Brewer’s solid at center, and rookie Jonah Savaiinaea adds some juice at right guard. Austin Jackson slides to right tackle. On paper, it’s more athletic and hopefully more durable, but “on paper” hasn’t meant much for Miami in recent years. The line has to gel—and fast—or Tua’s going to be running for his life again.
Tua is the hinge. If he stays healthy, the Dolphins have a puncher’s chance against anyone. If not, well, you know how that story goes. He needs more support, especially with Tyreek and Waddle coming off down years. And the tight end spot? Last year’s breakout, Jonnu Smith, is gone. Darren Waller comes out of retirement to fill the gap, but betting the farm on a guy who’s bounced in and out of football isn’t exactly comforting. If he can stay on the field, Waller’s a matchup nightmare, but that’s a big “if.” It puts even more pressure on De’Von Achane to give Miami a running threat, because if defenses don’t respect the ground game, the whole offense stalls.
Waller’s story is wild—suspensions, rehab, career resurrection with the Raiders, Pro Bowls, injuries, retirement, and now a comeback in Miami. He’s been through more than most tight ends ever will, but can he still move the needle at 33? If he can’t, the Fins are going to struggle to find that safety valve in the middle of the field.
On defense, Miami found something with Anthony Weaver last year. Top 10 in almost every major stat, and they were stingy against both the run and the pass. The front seven could be nasty: Zach Sieler is steady, and rookie Kenneth Grant has real upside. Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb are both back from injuries—if they stay healthy, that’s a pass rush that can wreck games. Chop Robinson brings fresh legs to the edge rotation, and there’s decent depth inside with Jordan Phillips and Benito Jones.
The linebackers are solid. Jordyn Brooks is the anchor, Tyrek Dodson is a nice complement, and K.J. Britt gives them some flexibility. The secondary is the real question mark. Jalen Ramsey is gone, so it’s up to Kader Kohou, Cam Smith, and rookie Jason Marshall Jr. to hold it down at corner. Safety got a boost with Ifeatu Melifonwu joining the mix, but this group has to grow up fast—especially with the schedule Miami’s facing.
Now, about that schedule: it’s brutal down the stretch. After a Week 12 bye, the Dolphins have to go on the road against the Jets, Steelers, and wrap things up in New England. There are also home dates with the Saints, Bengals, and Bucs. Aside from the Saints, the rest may spell a 1-5 closing to the season. It’s not hard to see how things could unravel if Miami doesn’t stack some early wins.
Vegas has the win total floating somewhere around 7.5, and honestly, that feels about right. If everything breaks their way—Tua healthy, O-line holds up, defense stays top 10—10 wins is on the table. But with this much volatility? You can’t rule out a 5-12 trainwreck either.
So what’s the call? I’m leaning ever-so-slightly toward the under. There are just too many moving parts, too many “what ifs,” and the ghosts of December collapses still lurking. The Dolphins will be fun, they’ll be frustrating, and every week will feel like a must-win. If you’re betting? Hold your nose and take the under. If you’re a fan, buckle up—this season is going to be a ride.
Bissett’s Prediction: UNDER 8.5 wins.
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